Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:34:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x107b…7cb0 weather 193 markets active 1h ago coverage 556d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$33 (-1%) realized −$29 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate52%98W / 91L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 29% −$4
weather 21% $0
crypto 17% −$4
politics 14% −$10
tech 8% $0
sports 6% −$14
culture 3% $0
world 1% $0
economics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.1% -9.4% 67% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 66 +0.0% -9.5% 47% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 132 -4.6% -13.6% 44% 0% -10.1%
all 189 -7.0% -15.9% 52% 0% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 0% -10.3%
10% -23.9% 0% -18.9%
15% -31.3% 0% -26.7%
20% -38.0% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 41% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

556d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$29
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses98 / 91
Open positions4
Markets (closed)189 / 193
History coverage556d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 189 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Islamic Group win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? No 100¢ 100¢ $22 $22 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 25? No 100¢ 99¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on June 25? No 100¢ 99¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 100¢ 10¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C or below on June 25? Jun 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 25? Jun 25 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 25? Jun 25 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 25? Jun 24 $27 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C or below on June 19? Jun 20 $17 $0 +0%
Will Mandy Ghusar advance from the CA-04 primary election? Jun 13 $8 $0 +0%
Will Mike Smith be the Republican nominee for NV-02? Jun 08 $13 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 4? Jun 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C or below on June 3? Jun 07 $9 $0 +0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 07 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 4? Jun 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 07 $20 $0 +0%
Will Adam Miller finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Ange Jun 03 $30 $0 -0%
Will Don Primus be the Democratic Nominee for IA-02? Jun 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will Jot Thiara win the CA-01 Special Election? Jun 03 $8 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on June 3? Jun 02 $5 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 41°C on June 2? Jun 02 $5 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 30°C on June 1? Jun 01 $5 $0 -0%
Will "Dandelion - Ella Langley" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the Jun 01 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 1? Jun 01 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 1? Jun 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 1? Jun 01 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 39°C on June 1? Jun 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index dip to 25 by May 31? Jun 01 $8 $0 +0%
Andy Burnham out as Mayor of Greater Manchester by May 31? May 31 $25 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on Ma May 31 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 May 25-31? May 31 $10 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 24°C or higher on June 1? May 31 $10 $0 -0%
Will Yuri Fulmer win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia l May 31 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on May 30? May 30 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 31? May 30 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on May 30? May 30 $11 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on May 30? May 30 $11 $0 +0%
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by May 31, 20 May 30 $15 $0 +0%
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026? May 30 $5 $0 -0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by May 31? May 30 $28 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 58-59°F on May 30? May 30 $13 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 29 $6 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on May 29? May 29 $14 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the #2 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Cont May 29 $19 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 30? May 29 $30 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 29? May 29 $18 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C or higher on May May 29 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on May 29? May 29 $14 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on May 29? May 28 $5 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C or higher on May 29? May 28 $8 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 29? May 28 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on May 28? May 28 $9 $0 -0%
Will Imperium Europa win the third-most seats in the House of Represen May 28 $13 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C or below on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $28 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 6h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C or below on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $6 7h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $8 9h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $15 10h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $27 18h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $23 19h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $4 19h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $6 22h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $14 22h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $15 24h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $27 28h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C or below on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $17 6d
Will Mandy Ghusar advance from the CA-04 primary election? SELL No 100¢ $8 11d
Will Mike Smith be the Republican nominee for NV-02? SELL No 100¢ $13 16d
Will Mike Smith be the Republican nominee for NV-02? BUY No 100¢ $13 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $5 22d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C or below on June 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $9 22d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $12 22d
Will Adam Miller finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Ange SELL No 100¢ $0 22d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 22d
Will Jot Thiara win the CA-01 Special Election? SELL No 100¢ $7 22d
Will Adam Miller finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Ange SELL No 100¢ $15 22d
Will Adam Miller finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Ange SELL No 100¢ $15 22d
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $9 22d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on June 3? SELL No 100¢ $5 22d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 41°C on June 2? SELL No 100¢ $0 23d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 41°C on June 2? SELL No 100¢ $4 23d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $5 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.10 · official $37.11 (match) · 454 history records