Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:45:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

10 0x1077…bfd1 sports 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover

Total PnL −$96 (-14%) realized −$86 · open −$10

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +176% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +130% what you keep after slip

Net edge+130%after slip

Net WR40%break-even

Win rate40%2W / 3L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$87per market

Trades / day10.4pace

Fees−$9est.

Kalshi-fit75%portable

Net worth$118now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +40%

net ROI/market (all)+149.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	+176.1%	+149.8%	40%	40%	+6.5%
≤30d	5	+176.1%	+149.8%	40%	40%	+6.5%
≤90d	5	+176.1%	+149.8%	40%	40%	+6.5%
all	5	+176.1%	+149.8%	40%	40%	+6.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover10.4 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+149.8%	40%	+6.5%
10%	+125.9%	40%	-3.7%
15%	+104.1%	40%	-13.0%
20%	+84.1%	40%	-21.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 64% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +18% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +176% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$262 vs −$142 · ×1.85 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.23 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$118

Realized−$86

Unrealized−$10

Win rate (resolved)40%

Wins / losses2 / 3

Est. fees paid−$9

Open positions3

Markets (closed)5 / 8

History coverage1d

Avg bet$87

Trades / day10.4

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 5 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	11¢	10¢	$50	$43	−$7 (-14%)
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Yes	22¢	20¢	$40	$37	−$3 (-7%)
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw?	Yes	24¢	24¢	$38	$37	−$1 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	Jun 21	$51	+$187	+365%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw?	Jun 21	$28	−$27	-97%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	Jun 21	$43	+$337	+785%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$142	−$99	-70%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?	Jun 20	$303	−$299	-99%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw?	BUY Yes	24¢	$39	1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	BUY Yes	22¢	$41	1h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	9¢	$28	17h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	BUY Yes	21¢	$51	18h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	11¢	$51	18h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	BUY Yes	11¢	$43	25h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	13¢	$42	25h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?	BUY Yes	56¢	$302	26h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?	BUY Yes	51¢	$1	26h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	42¢	$71	26h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	41¢	$70	26h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $117.65 · official $117.65 (match) · 13 history records