Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:04:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
10 0x1076…4f63 weather 63 markets active 2h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$20 (+0%) realized +$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%62W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$149per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$237now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 96% +$19
crypto 4% +$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 24 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 62 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 62 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.3%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$237
Realized+$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses62 / 0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)62 / 63
History coverage81d
Avg bet$149
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 71°F or below on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $237 $237 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 18? Jun 22 $237 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 18? Jun 18 $236 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on June 16? Jun 16 $236 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $147 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $89 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C or below on June 12? Jun 12 $235 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on June 10? Jun 10 $235 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 8°C or below on June 8? Jun 09 $64 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C or higher on June 8? Jun 08 $45 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $125 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on June 7? Jun 08 $115 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 7°C or below on June 7? Jun 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 6? Jun 06 $234 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 7°C on June 5? Jun 05 $83 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 5? Jun 05 $151 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 7°C or below on June 4? Jun 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 4? Jun 04 $146 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 8°C on June 3? Jun 04 $91 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 9°C on June 3? Jun 04 $137 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C or below on June 2? Jun 02 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 26°C or below on June 2? Jun 02 $133 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 31? Jun 01 $233 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C or higher on May 29? May 29 $232 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C or higher on May 27? May 27 $232 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C or higher on May 26? May 25 $232 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C or higher on May 24? May 24 $232 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 24? May 23 $231 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 22°C or below on May 18? May 22 $210 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 24°C or below on May 22? May 21 $21 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 24°C or below on May 18? May 20 $21 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 33°C on May 15? May 15 $231 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 21°C on May 15? May 14 $231 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 3? May 03 $231 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C or below on May 2? May 02 $209 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 23°C or below on May 2? May 01 $22 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 30 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C or higher on April Apr 30 $43 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on April 29? Apr 30 $157 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 29? Apr 29 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on April 29? Apr 29 $210 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on April 28? Apr 28 $210 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 26? Apr 26 $209 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 26°C or below on April 26 Apr 25 $59 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on April 26? Apr 25 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 15°C on April 24? Apr 23 $149 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 23? Apr 23 $59 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on April 2 Apr 23 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on April 22? Apr 23 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on April 22 Apr 23 $108 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on April 22? Apr 21 $207 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 71°F or below on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $237 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $237 6d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $236 8d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $236 10d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $89 12d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $147 12d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C or below on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $235 14d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $235 16d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $125 17d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 8°C or below on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $64 18d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C or higher on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $45 18d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 7°C or below on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $10 18d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $115 18d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $234 19d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $151 20d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $146 21d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 7°C on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $83 21d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 7°C or below on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $5 22d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 9°C on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $137 22d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 8°C on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $91 22d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 26°C or below on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $133 24d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C or below on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $100 24d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $233 26d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C or higher on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $232 28d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C or higher on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $232 29d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C or higher on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $232 31d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C or higher on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $232 32d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $231 33d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 24°C or below on May 22? BUY No 100¢ $21 35d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 24°C or below on May 18? BUY No 100¢ $21 40d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $237.06 · official $237.06 (match) · 135 history records