Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T06:47:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x1076…5e24 politics 29 markets active 3h ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$59 (-0%) realized −$59 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%1W / 27L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$885per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$7
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 92% −$35
economics 7% −$1
other 1% −$46
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 28 -0.9% -10.3% 4% 0% -9.8%
all 28 -0.9% -10.3% 4% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.9% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$912) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$59
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses1 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)28 / 29
History coverage71d
Avg bet$885
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $31 $31 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $37 $0 +0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $830 −$1 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $1,670 −$3 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $833 −$1 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $833 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $834 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $835 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $835 −$1 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $842 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $1,743 −$3 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $216 −$46 -22%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $890 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $890 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $1,792 −$3 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $892 −$2 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $895 −$1 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $893 −$2 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 08 $897 −$2 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $901 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $902 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $782 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 28 $911 −$1 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 26 $911 $0 +0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 24 $912 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $912 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $913 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 18 $914 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $915 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $31 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $37 25h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $829 6d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $830 7d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $830 8d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $832 10d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $831 11d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $833 12d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $831 13d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $833 15d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $833 16d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $834 17d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $833 21d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $835 22d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $834 23d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $835 24d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $841 25d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $842 26d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $837 28d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $838 28d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $837 30d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $839 31d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $170 32d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $216 32d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $889 34d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $890 34d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $889 36d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $890 36d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $892 38d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $893 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.09 · official $31.09 (match) · 107 history records