Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:47:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x1075…6abc weather 29 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$2 (-3%) realized +$1 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate50%1W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day41.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 52% −$2
other 20% −$1
tech 14% $0
sports 14% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-41.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -35.3% -41.5% 50% 0% -41.8%
≤30d 2 -35.3% -41.5% 50% 0% -41.8%
≤90d 2 -35.3% -41.5% 50% 0% -41.8%
all 2 -35.3% -41.5% 50% 0% -41.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -41.5% 0% -41.8%
10% ← realistic here -47.1% 0% -47.4%
15% -52.2% 0% -52.5%
20% -56.9% 0% -57.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized+$1
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions27
Markets (closed)2 / 29
History coverage1d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day41.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 27 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 16? Yes 54¢ 58¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+9%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 17? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+4%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 13¢ 19¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+54%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 16? Yes 27¢ 20¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-27%)
Spread: France (-1.5) France 39¢ 38¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 17? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 25¢ 13¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-48%)
Will Portugal be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-24%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? Yes 15¢ 20¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+37%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 16? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+25%)
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs TDK 63¢ 66¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Algeria 58¢ 57¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) Leviatán Esports 42¢ 42¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Over 41¢ 40¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Leviatán Esports 70¢ 68¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 17? Yes 34¢ 33¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 16? Up 43¢ 42¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 17? Yes 25¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 16? Yes 35¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 17? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -76%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 16? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 1m
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 43¢ $1 27m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 49m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 50m
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 17? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 54m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 16? SELL Yes 50¢ $1 1h
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Up 38¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 17? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $4 1h
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 2h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $1 2h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY TDK 63¢ $1 3h
Will Portugal be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 16? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 16? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Leviatán Esports 70¢ $1 3h
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) BUY Leviatán Esports 42¢ $1 3h
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 42¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 16? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 3h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on BUY Yes 13¢ $2 3h
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on last tra BUY Yes 25¢ $3 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 3h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 3h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 3h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 58¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 28¢ $4 4h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 16? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.86 · official $47.86 (match) · 41 history records