Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:04:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x1072…b115 crypto 77 markets active 1h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$77 (-1%) realized −$78 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate38%29W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day9.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$84
7 days−$101
14 days−$87
30 days−$88
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 64% −$116
sports 29% +$24
other 7% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-46.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -59.5% -63.3% 14% 2% -16.0%
≤30d 76 -41.1% -46.7% 38% 1% -10.8%
≤90d 76 -41.1% -46.7% 38% 1% -10.8%
all 76 -41.1% -46.7% 38% 1% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -46.7% 1% -10.8%
10% -51.8% 1% -19.4%
15% -56.5% 1% -27.2%
20% -60.7% 1% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -41% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late -54% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized−$78
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses29 / 47
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)76 / 77
History coverage30d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day9.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 78¢ 86¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 40 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $196 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$2 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$11 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$93 +1329%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$3 -94%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $188 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $191 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $186 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2AM ET Jun 12 $211 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 36m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 98¢ $196 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $7 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $3 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $0 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $0 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $0 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $0 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $0 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $0 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $0 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $0 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.97 · official $12.97 (match) · 306 history records