Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:43:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x106b…d9ad world 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 274d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate27%10W / 27L
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% +$2
other 16% $0
crypto 8% $0
politics 7% $0
tech 5% $0
finance 4% $0
sports 3% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +7.1% -3.1% 50% 50% -5.2%
≤30d 17 -6.2% -15.2% 24% 6% -9.1%
≤90d 17 -6.2% -15.2% 24% 6% -9.1%
all 37 -2.9% -12.1% 27% 5% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 5% -9.2%
10% -20.5% 3% -17.9%
15% -28.2% 0% -25.9%
20% -35.3% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.78 per $1 lost it wins $1.78
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

274d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses10 / 27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage274d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 91¢ 91¢ $44 $44 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $34 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 22 $17 +$2 +14%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 16 $13 $0 -1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $86 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $17 +$1 +5%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $42 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $41 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $86 −$1 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $3 −$1 -19%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $9 $0 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $40 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $33 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 07 $4 $0 -4%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $3 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $102 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $4 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 20 $2 $0 -5%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 19 $27 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Sep 30 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Sep 29 $2 +$1 +28%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Sep 29 $22 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 29 $2 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 28 $26 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Sep 28 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 27 $2 $0 -2%
Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman as next Fed Chair in 2025? Sep 26 $26 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on September 30? Sep 26 $26 $0 +0%
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 26 $2 −$1 -25%
Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2025? Sep 25 $28 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 25 $28 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $150 in September? Sep 25 $56 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Sep 24 $27 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Sep 24 $20 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Belarus? Sep 24 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Sep 24 $5 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 23 $28 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $44 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $40 18h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $22 21h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $19 21h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $34 24h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $34 27h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $20 32h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 42¢ $17 35h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 11¢ $0 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 30¢ $7 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 30¢ $5 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 30¢ $12 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 71¢ $38 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 70¢ $38 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $2 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $10 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $5 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 20¢ $3 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 20¢ $13 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 16¢ $8 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 16¢ $4 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 16¢ $9 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 16¢ $4 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $42 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $42 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $41 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $41 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 64¢ $0 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 64¢ $41 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 65¢ $42 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.62 · official $44.49 (match) · 153 history records