Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:10:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
10 0x1068…b886 sports 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$52 (+12%) realized +$53 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%12W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$85now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$55
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$52
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% +$30
other 23% +$57
world 8% −$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -15.1% -23.2% 44% 44% -9.4%
≤30d 25 +10.4% -0.1% 48% 48% +3.7%
≤90d 25 +10.4% -0.1% 48% 48% +3.7%
all 25 +10.4% -0.1% 48% 48% +3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.1% 48% +3.7%
10% -9.7% 44% -6.2%
15% -18.4% 44% -15.3%
20% -26.4% 40% -23.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +35% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$11 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$85
Realized+$53
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses12 / 13
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions7
Markets (closed)25 / 32
History coverage18d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Under 52¢ 56¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score No 56¢ 56¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+1%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Under 55¢ 50¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-8%)
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Argentina 40¢ 38¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Under 42¢ 40¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Under 29¢ 22¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 +$6 +114%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $20 +$27 +134%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $41 +$41 +101%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $36 −$36 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $30 +$28 +93%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $16 +$2 +14%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $10 +$8 +83%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $30 +$13 +44%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $5 +$7 +146%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 31 $5 +$31 +596%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 216.5 May 31 $5 +$4 +73%
Spread: Thunder (-2.5) May 31 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) May 31 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $30 +$22 +73%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $10 +$9 +90%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 30 $4 −$4 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 29¢ $3 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 42¢ $5 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 55¢ $15 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 56¢ $20 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $20 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $18 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 40¢ $5 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $5 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 BUY Over 24¢ $3 1h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 42¢ $20 12h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 21¢ $10 12h
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes $2 12h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 28¢ $6 22h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 49¢ $41 22h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $31 23h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 87¢ $16 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $30 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 84¢ $40 2d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 BUY Under 65¢ $20 4d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 33¢ $3 4d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 43¢ $5 4d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $10 4d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 31¢ $5 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 5d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 40¢ $5 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $30 5d
Spread: Thunder (-2.5) BUY Thunder 20¢ $5 16d
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) BUY Thunder 51¢ $5 16d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 216.5 BUY Under 57¢ $5 16d
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 1 Arsenal FC? BUY Yes $4 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $85.28 · official $84.02 · 45 history records