Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:59:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x1065…4d50 other 149 markets active 1h ago coverage 166d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$45 (+1%) realized +$40 · open +$5
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate93%133W / 10L
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$108now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days+$51
14 days+$51
30 days+$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 45% −$12
other 28% +$53
weather 15% −$9
tech 8% +$20
world 2% −$9
politics 1% +$1
economics 0% $0
sports 0% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +3.0% -6.8% 86% 14% +18.9%
≤30d 57 -7.7% -16.5% 89% 4% -6.9%
≤90d 109 -2.5% -11.8% 94% 5% -7.9%
all 143 -2.8% -12.1% 93% 6% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 6% -8.7%
10% -20.5% 3% -17.4%
15% -28.2% 2% -25.4%
20% -35.2% 2% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.72 per $1 lost it wins $1.72
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

166d coverage
Net worth$108
Realized+$40
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses133 / 10
Open positions6
Markets (closed)143 / 149
History coverage166d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 143 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 83¢ 96¢ $25 $29 +$4 (+16%)
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 84¢ 88¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+5%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 62¢ 95¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+54%)
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 72¢ 46¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $10 $0 +2%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $30 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $20 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day Jun 12 $4 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $46 +$54 +116%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 9? Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 10? Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 41°C or higher on June 5? Jun 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C or below on June 5? Jun 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 5? Jun 08 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 3? Jun 04 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C or higher on June 3? Jun 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C or below on June 3? Jun 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 3? Jun 04 $10 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 2? Jun 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 2? Jun 03 $30 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $50 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 03 $90 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 3? Jun 02 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 62-63°F on May 28? Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 61°F or below on May 28? Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on May 30? Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C or below on May 30? Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on May 29? Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on May 30? Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 64-65°F on May 28? Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on May 28? Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 01 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on May 28? Jun 01 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on May 29? Jun 01 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C or higher on May 29? Jun 01 $20 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 01 $25 +$3 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 29? Jun 01 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or higher on April 25? May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on March 19? May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? May 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 56-57°F on May 27? May 29 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 58-59°F on May 27? May 29 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 60-61°F on May 27? May 29 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 62-63°F on May 27? May 29 $20 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 28 $5 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $30 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 28 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 56-57°F on May May 28 $50 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 25 $20 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market BUY No 100¢ $40 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $3 28h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 2d
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 3d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 5d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 5d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 6d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 45¢ $46 7d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 8d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $10 8d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $5 10d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 91¢ $5 11d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 96¢ $5 12d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 41°C or higher on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $10 14d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 5? BUY No 99¢ $10 14d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C or below on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $10 14d
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C or higher on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $10 15d
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 3? BUY No 93¢ $5 15d
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 3? BUY No 99¢ $10 15d
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C or below on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $10 15d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 3? BUY Yes $10 16d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 16d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 17d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $10 17d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $30 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 29? BUY Yes 100¢ $70 20d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $10 20d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $10 20d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C or below on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $10 20d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C or higher on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $20 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $107.52 · official $107.52 (match) · 335 history records