Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:24:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x1062…ec2b other 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$71 (-21%) realized −$70 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%6W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit8%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% −$115
sports 3% +$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +21.2% +9.7% 60% 60% -32.0%
≤30d 10 +21.2% +9.7% 60% 60% -32.0%
≤90d 10 +21.2% +9.7% 60% 60% -32.0%
all 10 +21.2% +9.7% 60% 60% -32.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.7% 60% -32.0%
10% -0.8% 60% -38.5%
15% -10.4% 50% -44.5%
20% -19.2% 20% -49.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$41 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized−$70
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses6 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)10 / 12
History coverage5d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit8%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 66¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$40 +392%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $50 +$22 +43%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 +$6 +32%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $16 +$6 +36%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $9 +$6 +67%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 +$10 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $25 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $38 18h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 18h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $12 19h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $72 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 25h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 43h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $27 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 75¢ $20 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $16 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $9 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $36 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $25 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.82 · official $43.82 (match) · 21 history records