Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:47:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
10 0x1060…d28b other 66 markets active 1h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$447 (+12%) realized +$453 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate37%23W / 39L
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$46est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$42
7 days+$225
14 days+$205
30 days+$446
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% +$300
other 20% +$145
politics 1% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +24.7% +12.9% 50% 33% -1.9%
≤30d 61 +20.1% +8.6% 38% 31% +2.3%
≤90d 62 +18.4% +7.1% 37% 31% +2.3%
all 62 +18.4% +7.1% 37% 31% +2.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.1% 31% +2.3%
10% -3.1% 24% -7.5%
15% -12.5% 21% -16.5%
20% -21.1% 18% -24.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +31% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$15 · ×2.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.76 per $1 lost it wins $1.76
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized+$453
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses23 / 39
Est. fees paid−$46
Open positions3
Markets (closed)62 / 66
History coverage30d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 49¢ 52¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+5%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 29¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 7¢ 1¢ $7 $1 −$6 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $152 +$122 +80%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $10 −$5 -53%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $307 −$73 -24%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $334 +$9 +3%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +245%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $363 +$107 +30%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $113 $0 +0%
Japan to score first vs. Netherlands? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $7 −$3 -45%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $213 +$2 +1%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $24 −$19 -79%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $31 −$6 -21%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $100 +$12 +12%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $2 +$19 +1104%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $341 +$45 +13%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $341 +$16 +5%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +28%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $310 +$52 +17%
Will Chile win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $129 +$178 +139%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $127 −$125 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Peru win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $10 −$6 -63%
Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Guatemala win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -97%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $86 −$85 -99%
Will Argentina vs. Honduras end in a draw? Jun 07 $29 −$28 -97%
Will Chile win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Guatemala vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Guatemala win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $10 −$9 -89%
Will Serbia win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $10 +$105 +1019%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $10 +$11 +105%
Will France vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 04 $31 −$8 -26%
Will Spain vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 04 $10 −$3 -25%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $41 +$54 +132%
Will Dominican Republic win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $17 −$8 -48%
Will Poland win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $21 −$20 -97%
Gibraltar vs. British Virgin Islands: O/U 3.5 Jun 03 $10 −$10 -98%
Will British Virgin Islands win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Wales win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $11 −$8 -68%
Will Costa Rica win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $10 +$5 +46%
Norway vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 01 $20 +$20 +99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 97¢ $274 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 53¢ $152 2h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 4¢ $5 3h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 8¢ $10 3h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $234 7h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $307 7h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 66¢ $342 28h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 63¢ $334 28h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 30h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 92¢ $4 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 95¢ $470 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 73¢ $363 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $113 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 99¢ $113 2d
Japan to score first vs. Netherlands? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 11¢ $4 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $215 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 98¢ $213 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 12¢ $1 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 10¢ $1 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 10¢ $1 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 9¢ $1 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 10¢ $1 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 18¢ $10 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 11¢ $4 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.93 · official $12.93 (match) · 126 history records