Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T18:39:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x105d…73e0 world 84 markets active 2h ago coverage 491d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate33%27W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$4
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% −$3
other 23% $0
politics 15% +$1
sports 11% −$12
economics 3% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.4% -9.2% 40% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 37 -4.0% -13.1% 30% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 80 -2.8% -12.0% 34% 0% -9.6%
all 82 -4.0% -13.1% 33% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 0% -9.9%
10% -21.4% 0% -18.5%
15% -29.0% 0% -26.4%
20% -36.0% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

491d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses27 / 55
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)82 / 84
History coverage491d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 82 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 94¢ 91¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-4%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Jun 24 $36 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 24 $45 −$2 -5%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $36 $0 +0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $31 +$2 +7%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 22 $64 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 21 $31 $0 -1%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 20 $34 $0 +0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 20 $31 +$1 +3%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $63 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $64 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $22 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $19 −$5 -24%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $34 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $37 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $34 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $41 −$1 -2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 08 $40 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $39 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $37 $0 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $72 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 03 $2 $0 -5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $41 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $33 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 01 $23 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 31 $113 +$2 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 31 $3 −$1 -24%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 30 $45 $0 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 30 $35 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 29 $40 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $36 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 28 $37 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 27 $70 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $70 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $37 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 26 $33 −$2 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $75 +$2 +3%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $38 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $3 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 16 $3 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $39 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 15 $39 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 15 $39 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 14 $35 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $70 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $74 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 25 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 25 $73 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? SELL No 52¢ $36 1h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? BUY No 52¢ $36 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 15h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 17h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 17h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 52¢ $36 22h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 52¢ $36 22h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $33 30h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 85¢ $31 32h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $31 42h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $8 45h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $23 45h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 85¢ $31 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 86¢ $31 3d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 78¢ $34 4d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 78¢ $34 4d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 93¢ $2 4d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 93¢ $30 4d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 90¢ $31 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $30 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $2 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $29 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $33 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $33 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $31 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $2 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $8 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $25 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $31 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.37 · official $0.00 · 346 history records