Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:49:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x105b…2f79 sports 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 632d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$41 (+1%) realized +$42 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate16%5W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$108per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$1,024now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 58% −$5
other 30% −$14
sports 11% +$59
crypto 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-36.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 32 -29.5% -36.3% 16% 6% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.3% 6% -8.1%
10% -42.4% 6% -16.9%
15% -47.9% 6% -24.9%
20% -53.0% 6% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$6 · ×6.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

632d coverage
Net worth$1,024
Realized+$42
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses5 / 27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage632d
Avg bet$108
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,025 $1,024 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 24 $496 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 24 $531 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 23 $1,033 −$2 -0%
UFC 322: Shevchenko vs. Weili (Women's Flyweight, Main Card) Nov 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Flames vs. Blues Nov 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Spread: BAL (-4.5) Sep 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Buccaneers vs. Texans Sep 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Hunor Kelemen win the Romanian presidential election? Jul 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will XRP reach $4.0 in June? Jul 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? May 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 08 $5 $0 -0%
Will Jaime Battiste be the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Party? May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? May 06 $5 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? May 05 $6 $0 -1%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? Apr 30 $5 $0 -1%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 27 $4 $0 -3%
Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 27 $5 $0 -0%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 17 $4 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $5 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Apr 09 $2 $0 -9%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 08 $2 $0 -3%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Apr 07 $5 $0 -0%
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 03 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 02 $4 $0 +0%
Will Joe Burrow be the top Fantasy Quarterback? Jan 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Panthers vs. Avalanche Jan 08 $115 +$98 +85%
Senators vs. Blues Jan 05 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Arsenal lead the EPL in points at midway point? Jan 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Notre Dame vs. Georgia Jan 03 $113 +$100 +89%
Will there be 170,000,000-175,000,000 votes cast in the U.S. President Jan 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Who will speak more at VP Debate? Oct 02 $9 −$9 -100%
草莓软糖是男人还是女人 (man or woman)? Oct 01 $11 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,025 1h
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $495 1h
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $530 1h
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $531 10h
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $496 10h
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,032 10h
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,033 36h
UFC 322: Shevchenko vs. Weili (Women's Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Weili 46¢ $11 221d
Flames vs. Blues BUY Flames 43¢ $9 224d
Spread: BAL (-4.5) BUY BAL 50¢ $7 274d
Buccaneers vs. Texans BUY Texans 57¢ $8 282d
Will XRP reach $4.0 in June? BUY No 100¢ $5 365d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $5 407d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $5 408d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL No 100¢ $5 411d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY No 100¢ $5 412d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $5 413d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $5 414d
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? SELL No 98¢ $6 414d
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? BUY No 98¢ $6 415d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? SELL No 94¢ $5 419d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? BUY No 94¢ $5 419d
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? SELL Yes 76¢ $4 422d
Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? SELL No 96¢ $5 422d
Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? BUY No 96¢ $5 424d
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? BUY Yes 78¢ $4 426d
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? SELL No 84¢ $4 432d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL No 91¢ $5 432d
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? BUY No 84¢ $4 433d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY No 92¢ $5 433d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,024.48 · official $1,024.48 (match) · 63 history records