Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T01:26:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x1057…9ea5 other 110 markets active 1d ago coverage 228d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 227d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$815,881 (+39%) realized +$779,549 · open +$36,332
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate84%82W / 16L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$19,024per market
Trades / day14.7pace
Fees−$202est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$428,368now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$19,799
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% +$126,926
sports 27% +$265,808
politics 11% +$104,979
world 5% −$12,284
economics 0% −$1,538
tech 0% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)+2.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 5 -30.4% -37.1% 60% 60% -30.9%
all 98 +13.6% +2.7% 84% 51% +14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.7 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.7% 51% +14.3%
10% ← realistic here -7.1% 32% +3.4%
15% -16.1% 24% -6.6%
20% -24.3% 16% -15.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$9,666) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +28% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
29.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6,903 vs −$7,900 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.78 per $1 lost it wins $4.78
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

228d coverage
Net worth$428,368
Realized+$779,549
Unrealized+$36,332
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses82 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$202
Open positions12
Markets (closed)98 / 110
History coverage228d ⚠
Avg bet$19,024
Trades / day14.7
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 98 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 80¢ 94¢ $164,027 $193,241 +$29,214 (+18%)
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? No 88¢ 100¢ $135,283 $153,177 +$17,895 (+13%)
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? No 89¢ 94¢ $52,522 $55,644 +$3,122 (+6%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 83¢ 90¢ $16,600 $18,100 +$1,500 (+9%)
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 85¢ 97¢ $3,930 $4,478 +$548 (+14%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 75¢ 14¢ $17,893 $3,438 −$14,455 (-81%)
Nothing Ever Happens: Satoshi Nakamoto Nothing 93¢ 94¢ $153 $155 +$2 (+1%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? No 43¢ $1,500 $84 −$1,416 (-94%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo play for Sporting CP next? No 82¢ 57¢ $54 $37 −$16 (-30%)
Will JAY-Z release a new song in 2026? Yes 89¢ 80¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-11%)
Elon Bull Run Parlay No 84¢ 97¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+15%)
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? No 53¢ $61 $0 −$61 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $19,799 −$19,799 -100%
US civil war before 2027? May 17 $5,483 +$818 +15%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 17 $20,373 +$3,595 +18%
Will Kanye tweet again by March 31? Apr 03 $356 −$356 -100%
ICE shooter charged by March 31? Apr 01 $12,592 +$1,916 +15%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027? Mar 16 $628 +$47 +8%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 16 $16,044 +$826 +5%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026? Mar 06 $659 −$659 -100%
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 6? Mar 06 $340 −$340 -100%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Mar 06 $1,538 −$1,538 -100%
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 13 Mar 06 $896 −$896 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 06 $9,983 −$9,983 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 06 $19,141 −$19,141 -100%
Will Donald Trump be named in newly released Epstein files by February Mar 03 $1,233 +$154 +12%
Will Susie Wiles be named in newly released Epstein files by February Mar 01 $0 $0 +52%
Will Piers Morgan be named in newly released Epstein files by February Mar 01 $13 +$6 +47%
Will Sean Combs be named in newly released Epstein files by February 2 Mar 01 $15 +$4 +25%
Will Stephen Colbert be named in newly released Epstein files by Febru Mar 01 $15 +$5 +37%
Will Al Gore be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28? Mar 01 $22 +$2 +10%
Will Ellen Degeneres be named in newly released Epstein files by Febru Mar 01 $24 +$5 +22%
Will Kirsten Gillibrand be named in newly released Epstein files by Fe Mar 01 $31 +$2 +8%
Will David Koch be named in newly released Epstein files by February 2 Mar 01 $33 +$9 +27%
Will Jimmy Kimmel be named in newly released Epstein files by February Mar 01 $43 +$3 +6%
Will Rachel Maddow be named in newly released Epstein files by Februar Mar 01 $86 +$22 +25%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? Mar 01 $130 $0 +0%
Will Bernie Sanders be named in newly released Epstein files by Februa Mar 01 $127 +$11 +8%
Will Tom Hanks be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28 Mar 01 $135 +$7 +5%
Will Oprah Winfrey be named in newly released Epstein files by Februar Mar 01 $129 +$15 +12%
Will Henry Kissinger be named in newly released Epstein files by Febru Mar 01 $166 +$12 +7%
Will Stephen Hawking be named in newly released Epstein files by Febru Mar 01 $183 +$27 +15%
Will Quentin Tarantino be named in newly released Epstein files by Feb Mar 01 $188 +$22 +12%
Will Apple announce the iPhone 17e by February 28? Mar 01 $238 +$11 +5%
Will Ehud Barak be named in newly released Epstein files by February 2 Mar 01 $220 +$103 +47%
Will Justin Trudeau be named in newly released Epstein files by Februa Mar 01 $342 +$23 +7%
Will Anderson Cooper be named in newly released Epstein files by Febru Mar 01 $480 +$66 +14%
Will Zohran Mamdani be named in newly released Epstein files by Februa Mar 01 $539 +$35 +6%
Will Elon Musk be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28 Mar 01 $466 +$147 +31%
Will Howard Lutnick be named in newly released Epstein files by Februa Mar 01 $727 +$69 +10%
Will Prince Andrew be named in newly released Epstein files by Februar Mar 01 $776 +$135 +17%
Will Reid Hoffman be named in newly released Epstein files by February Mar 01 $1,166 +$147 +13%
Will Leonardo DiCaprio be named in newly released Epstein files by Feb Mar 01 $1,305 +$69 +5%
Will Kevin Spacey be named in newly released Epstein files by February Mar 01 $4,342 +$400 +9%
Will David Copperfield be named in newly released Epstein files by Feb Mar 01 $4,322 +$436 +10%
Will Bill Gates be named in newly released Epstein files by February 2 Mar 01 $4,520 +$519 +12%
Will Chuck Schumer be named in newly released Epstein files by Februar Mar 01 $4,815 +$282 +6%
Will Michael Jackson be named in newly released Epstein files by Febru Mar 01 $5,579 +$525 +9%
Starmer out by February 28, 2026? Mar 01 $5,963 +$1,274 +21%
Will Jay-Z be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28? Mar 01 $6,742 +$520 +8%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28? Mar 01 $9,666 +$1,102 +11%
Will Alec Baldwin be named in newly released Epstein files by February Mar 01 $34,726 +$1,882 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $2,146 35h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $54 35h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $577 9d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $5,667 9d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $9 9d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $55 9d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $1,598 9d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $567 9d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $1 9d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $26 9d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $3,002 9d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 66¢ $5,540 22d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 66¢ $3 22d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 66¢ $21 22d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 66¢ $2 22d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 66¢ $3 22d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 66¢ $2 22d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 66¢ $2 22d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 66¢ $4 22d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 66¢ $2 22d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 66¢ $2 22d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 66¢ $2 22d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 66¢ $4 22d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 66¢ $3 22d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 66¢ $2 22d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 66¢ $2 22d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 66¢ $2 22d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 66¢ $2 22d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 66¢ $12 22d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 66¢ $2 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $428,368.13 · official $428,368.14 (match) · 3500 history records