Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:29:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
10 0x1056…3c9d crypto 153 markets active 0h ago coverage 216d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$7,711 (+39%) realized +$7,279 · open +$327
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +16% what you keep after slip
Net edge+16%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate55%74W / 60L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$129per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$116est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$1,687now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6,661
7 days+$6,018
14 days+$6,018
30 days+$6,335
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% +$8,232
crypto 40% −$767
other 6% +$153
politics 2% +$11
economics 0% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 114 +20.1% +8.7% 52% 41% +25.0%
≤30d 115 +22.7% +11.0% 52% 42% +26.6%
≤90d 116 +22.7% +11.0% 53% 42% +26.6%
all 134 +27.8% +15.6% 55% 46% +26.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +15.6% 46% +26.6%
10% +4.6% 40% +14.5%
15% -5.5% 34% +3.4%
20% -14.8% 25% -6.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 54% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +40% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +28% · $-wt +40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +51% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$169 vs −$87 · ×1.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.39 per $1 lost it wins $2.39
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

216d coverage
Net worth$1,687
Realized+$7,279
Unrealized+$327
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses74 / 60
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$116
Open positions18
Markets (closed)134 / 153
History coverage216d
Avg bet$129
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 134 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 100¢ $100 $227 +$127 (+127%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $200 $214 +$14 (+7%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $200 $197 −$3 (-2%)
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Sweden 42¢ 72¢ $100 $172 +$72 (+72%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 0.5 Over 60¢ 100¢ $90 $150 +$60 (+67%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Over 37¢ 100¢ $50 $134 +$84 (+169%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $90 $110 +$20 (+22%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Yes 50¢ 100¢ $50 $100 +$50 (+100%)
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 TheMongolz 62¢ 62¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner TheMongolz 57¢ 56¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Over 44¢ 64¢ $50 $73 +$23 (+47%)
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Sweden 21¢ 30¢ $50 $71 +$21 (+43%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Yes 9¢ 1¢ $100 $8 −$92 (-92%)
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 4¢ $30 $5 −$25 (-84%)
Tunisia to score first vs. Sweden? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $81 +$19 +24%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 3 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $133 +$358 +270%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $190 −$180 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $232 −$220 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $68 +$5 +8%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $606 +$285 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $83 +$64 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $191 −$133 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $155 −$155 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $171 +$17 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $103 −$7 -7%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $62 +$17 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $60 +$8 +12%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $162 +$175 +108%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $243 +$196 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $103 +$26 +25%
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? Jun 14 $101 +$77 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $41 +$13 +33%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $504 +$308 +61%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $122 −$122 -100%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $94 +$15 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $36 +$8 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $56 −$19 -33%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $152 −$152 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $107 −$81 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $107 +$64 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $52 +$37 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$19 +37%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $64 +$28 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$12 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $42 −$9 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $68 −$68 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $276 −$24 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $119 +$47 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $62 −$18 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $81 +$19 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $270 +$64 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $97 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $61 +$17 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 62¢ $101 1m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 57¢ $101 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $20 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $20 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $20 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $20 5m
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden 38¢ $51 38m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 44¢ $51 40m
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 6¢ $41 41m
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 42m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $51 1h
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) BUY Sweden 21¢ $51 1h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden 46¢ $51 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $491 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 60¢ $91 1h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $102 1h
Tunisia to score first vs. Sweden? BUY Yes 33¢ $20 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $85 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $84 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $85 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $84 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Up 12¢ $57 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,686.99 · official $1,654.56 · 621 history records