Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:18:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x1054…0f98 politics 156 markets active 1h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$668 (+0%) realized +$669 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate13%20W / 135L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$1,866per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$1,000now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$29
14 days−$203
30 days−$355
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$150
other 37% −$36
sports 13% +$820
world 3% −$10
culture 2% −$7
crypto 1% −$2
economics 0% $0
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 61 -5.0% -14.1% 5% 3% -9.8%
≤90d 125 -11.6% -20.0% 6% 3% -9.7%
all 155 -3.0% -12.2% 13% 10% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 10% -9.3%
10% -20.6% 10% -18.0%
15% -28.3% 9% -25.9%
20% -35.3% 7% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,668) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$117 vs −$13 · ×9.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$1,000
Realized+$669
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses20 / 135
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)155 / 156
History coverage120d
Avg bet$1,866
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 155 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,001 $1,000 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $1,126 −$2 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $4,966 −$7 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $863 −$1 -0%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $185 +$1 +0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $741 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $1,011 −$2 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 11 $2,564 −$4 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $867 −$1 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 11 $921 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $2,749 −$3 -0%
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 10 $754 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $2,482 −$3 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $3,400 −$4 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $992 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $5,620 −$7 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $2,010 −$3 -0%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $6,535 −$7 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $85 +$55 +65%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $3,060 −$4 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $4,024 −$5 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $6,616 −$7 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $5,344 −$6 -0%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 03 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $2,178 −$3 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $3,486 −$4 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $2,881 −$4 -0%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Lavked (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group St Jun 02 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $1,083 −$2 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 01 $1,350 −$2 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $1,027 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $1,267 −$2 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $1,359 −$2 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $4,766 −$6 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $2,416 −$3 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $1,037 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $1,175 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $1,079 −$2 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $1,080 −$2 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $1,486 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? May 28 $1,056 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $1,085 −$2 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $3,168 −$5 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $1,591 −$3 -0%
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves May 25 $48 +$67 +140%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $3,399 −$4 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $1,128 −$1 -0%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) May 24 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Gillian Sherratt win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? May 23 $1,274 −$1 -0%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees May 23 $82 −$82 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,001 1h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,124 6h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,126 7h
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $882 21h
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $884 24h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $862 27h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $863 30h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $739 2d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $741 3d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,010 3d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,011 3d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $864 3d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $865 4d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $866 4d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $867 4d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $920 4d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $921 4d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $910 5d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $911 5d
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $753 5d
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $754 5d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $846 6d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $847 6d
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $185 6d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $822 6d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $823 7d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $991 7d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $992 7d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $828 7d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $829 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,000.49 · official $1,000.49 (match) · 583 history records