Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T10:38:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
10 0x1052…441b sports 433 markets active 0h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,070 (+1%) realized +$1,086 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate60%257W / 174L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$302per market
Trades / day47.9pace
Fees−$1,451est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$684now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,478
7 days−$2,702
14 days−$1,305
30 days−$275
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$375
other 0% +$84
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 129 -10.1% -18.7% 50% 43% -14.2%
≤30d 431 +0.3% -9.2% 60% 51% -9.7%
≤90d 431 +0.3% -9.2% 60% 51% -9.7%
all 431 +0.3% -9.2% 60% 51% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.2% 51% -9.7%
10% ← realistic here -17.9% 38% -18.4%
15% -25.9% 21% -26.2%
20% -33.1% 10% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$89 vs −$133 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$684
Realized+$1,086
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses257 / 174
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$1,451
Open positions2
Markets (closed)431 / 433
History coverage28d
Avg bet$302
Trades / day47.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 431 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Solary 63¢ 62¢ $600 $590 −$10 (-2%)
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters Last Chance Qualifier Top Esports Challenger 71¢ 66¢ $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $304 −$40 -13%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $81 −$39 -48%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $851 +$89 +10%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $803 +$42 +5%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $420 +$108 +26%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $322 +$83 +26%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 15 $301 −$192 -64%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $128 −$33 -26%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $267 +$189 +70%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS (BO5) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Jun 14 $142 +$144 +101%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $201 +$62 +31%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $199 +$58 +29%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $214 +$77 +36%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $26 −$18 -70%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Alliance - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $66 −$11 -16%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 14 $132 +$60 +46%
Counter-Strike: Nexus vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $90 −$56 -62%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Metizport (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $50 +$23 +46%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $89 +$35 +40%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $101 +$23 +22%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $62 +$28 +45%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $50 +$16 +32%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $202 +$18 +9%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P Jun 14 $344 −$237 -69%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $231 −$124 -54%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $151 −$8 -5%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $60 +$14 +23%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playo Jun 13 $51 +$56 +110%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $812 −$812 -100%
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Jun 13 $102 −$102 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $364 −$221 -61%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 13 $50 +$4 +7%
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $109 +$50 +46%
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 13 $50 +$7 +13%
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $74 +$36 +49%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $751 −$751 -100%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $101 −$5 -5%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $202 −$8 -4%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $3,863 −$472 -12%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $1,115 −$223 -20%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $203 −$171 -84%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $1,585 −$137 -9%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $699 +$35 +5%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $578 −$116 -20%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $103 −$54 -53%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $476 +$326 +68%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Solary 63¢ $101 9m
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Top Esports Challenger 71¢ $101 10m
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner SELL Top Esports Challenger 48¢ $96 10m
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Solary 63¢ $506 14m
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner BUY Top Esports Challenger 49¢ $102 17m
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La SELL Saigon Warriors 33¢ $90 17m
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner SELL Saigon Warriors 53¢ $167 24m
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner BUY Saigon Warriors 63¢ $202 39m
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Saigon Warriors 72¢ $202 39m
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner SELL Top Esports Challenger 25¢ $42 41m
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner BUY Top Esports Challenger 46¢ $81 51m
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La SELL Saigon Warriors 55¢ $191 58m
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Saigon Warriors 54¢ $35 1h
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $940 1h
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 93¢ $449 2h
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $449 2h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Saigon Warriors 42¢ $124 2h
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 85¢ $100 2h
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 89¢ $100 2h
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 88¢ $301 2h
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 89¢ $301 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $0 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $527 2h
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 86¢ $396 2h
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 87¢ $402 3h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $405 3h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 79¢ $420 8h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 79¢ $322 8h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 3 Winner BUY LOS 58¢ $267 16h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner SELL LOS 99¢ $0 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $684.14 · official $684.14 (match) · 1511 history records