Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T09:51:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x104a…cc7e sports 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$46 (-7%) realized −$44 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate43%15W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$94now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$42
7 days+$12
14 days−$18
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% +$10
crypto 38% −$48
other 12% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-31.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -12.8% -21.1% 50% 50% -6.1%
≤30d 21 -25.3% -32.4% 43% 43% -14.4%
≤90d 24 -25.6% -32.7% 42% 42% -16.7%
all 35 -24.5% -31.7% 43% 40% -17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.7% 40% -17.7%
10% -38.2% 37% -25.5%
15% -44.2% 31% -32.7%
20% -49.7% 23% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$11 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$94
Realized−$44
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses15 / 20
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)35 / 37
History coverage140d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Japan vs. Sweden: Japan O/U 1.5 Over 52¢ 50¢ $67 $66 −$2 (-3%)
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 62¢ 61¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Scotland vs. Brazil: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $79 +$19 +24%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $44 +$35 +81%
England leading at halftime? Jun 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 23 $8 +$3 +44%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $12 −$4 -35%
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $10 +$2 +25%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $13 +$6 +47%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $14 −$14 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $15 +$13 +85%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 20 $18 −$18 -100%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $10 +$8 +78%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $12 −$12 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $12 +$9 +75%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $10 +$14 +145%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Ghana leading at halftime? Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League final? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? Apr 16 $7 +$3 +52%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 08 $10 −$4 -37%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 25? Mar 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 25? Feb 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on February 24? Feb 25 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 23? Feb 24 $19 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 21? Feb 23 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 20? Feb 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 20? Feb 20 $10 +$2 +20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 19? Feb 20 $38 −$27 -72%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 19? Feb 19 $18 +$7 +41%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 18? Feb 18 $38 +$25 +66%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on February 1 Feb 17 $25 +$25 +100%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? Feb 17 $26 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 62¢ $29 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: Japan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $69 1h
Scotland vs. Brazil: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 80¢ $79 12h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $79 12h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $44 17h
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 64¢ $11 39h
Portugal leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 39h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 68¢ $8 46h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? SELL No 25¢ $8 46h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? BUY No 34¢ $12 2d
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 0.5 BUY Over 79¢ $10 2d
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $10 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $13 3d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 49¢ $14 3d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $15 3d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 BUY Over 33¢ $4 4d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 41¢ $14 4d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 49¢ $18 5d
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $10 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 30¢ $11 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 14¢ $12 6d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 56¢ $12 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY No 39¢ $10 6d
Ghana leading at halftime? BUY Yes 31¢ $11 7d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $9 8d
Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League final? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 69d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $7 70d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? SELL No 53¢ $7 77d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 25? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 91d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? BUY No 84¢ $10 92d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $93.54 · official $93.54 (match) · 80 history records