Wallet analysis — Alpha Desk

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$46

7 days+$46

14 days+$46

30 days+$46

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will D.K. Metcalf be traded?	Yes	5¢	4¢	$1	$1	−$0 (-10%)
Will Tadeo Allende win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot?	Yes	1¢	2¢	$0	$0	+$0 (+110%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Kyler Murray be traded?	Jun 12	$305	$0	-0%
Will Germán Berterame win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot?	Jun 12	$7	$0	+0%
Will Tai Baribo win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot?	Jun 12	$79	−$2	-2%
Will Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot?	Jun 12	$1,205	+$3	+0%
Will Brian Thomas Jr. be traded?	Jun 11	$4	+$46	+1289%
Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by June 30, 2026?	Jun 11	$26	−$3	-10%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

other 99% +$48

world 1% −$3

Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Kyler Murray be traded?	SELL Yes	0¢	$2	0m
Will Kyler Murray be traded?	BUY Yes	0¢	$2	0m
Will Kyler Murray be traded?	SELL Yes	0¢	$2	0m
Will Kyler Murray be traded?	BUY Yes	0¢	$2	0m
Will Kyler Murray be traded?	SELL Yes	0¢	$2	0m
Will Kyler Murray be traded?	BUY Yes	0¢	$2	0m
Will Kyler Murray be traded?	SELL Yes	0¢	$2	1m
Will Kyler Murray be traded?	BUY Yes	0¢	$2	1m
Will Kyler Murray be traded?	SELL Yes	0¢	$2	1m
Will Kyler Murray be traded?	BUY Yes	0¢	$2	1m
Will Kyler Murray be traded?	SELL Yes	0¢	$2	1m
Will Kyler Murray be traded?	BUY Yes	0¢	$2	1m
Will Kyler Murray be traded?	SELL Yes	0¢	$2	1m
Will Kyler Murray be traded?	BUY Yes	0¢	$2	1m
Will Kyler Murray be traded?	SELL Yes	0¢	$2	1m
Will Kyler Murray be traded?	BUY Yes	0¢	$2	2m
Will Kyler Murray be traded?	SELL Yes	0¢	$2	2m
Will Kyler Murray be traded?	BUY Yes	0¢	$2	2m
Will Kyler Murray be traded?	SELL Yes	0¢	$2	2m
Will Kyler Murray be traded?	BUY Yes	0¢	$2	3m
Will Kyler Murray be traded?	SELL Yes	0¢	$2	3m
Will Kyler Murray be traded?	BUY Yes	0¢	$2	3m
Will Kyler Murray be traded?	SELL Yes	0¢	$2	3m
Will Kyler Murray be traded?	BUY Yes	0¢	$2	3m
Will Kyler Murray be traded?	SELL Yes	0¢	$2	3m
Will Kyler Murray be traded?	BUY Yes	0¢	$2	3m
Will Kyler Murray be traded?	SELL Yes	0¢	$2	4m
Will Kyler Murray be traded?	BUY Yes	0¢	$2	4m
Will Kyler Murray be traded?	SELL Yes	0¢	$2	4m
Will Kyler Murray be traded?	BUY Yes	0¢	$2	4m

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +17%

net ROI/market (all)+183.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	+212.9%	+183.1%	33%	17%	-7.0%
≤30d	6	+212.9%	+183.1%	33%	17%	-7.0%
≤90d	6	+212.9%	+183.1%	33%	17%	-7.0%
all	6	+212.9%	+183.1%	33%	17%	-7.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

turnover1209.6 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+183.1%	17%	-7.0%
10% ← realistic here	+156.0%	17%	-15.9%
15%	+131.2%	17%	-24.0%
20%	+108.6%	17%	-31.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.