Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:30:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x1046…7041 politics 143 markets active 1h ago coverage 146d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$958 (+0%) realized +$958 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate24%35W / 108L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$1,369per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$12
14 days−$184
30 days−$173
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 49% −$131
other 34% −$513
sports 9% +$1,618
world 3% −$17
culture 2% −$32
tech 1% +$2
crypto 1% +$2
economics 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.1% -9.5% 14% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 37 -3.9% -13.1% 11% 3% -9.8%
≤90d 90 -14.0% -22.2% 8% 2% -10.0%
all 143 -5.4% -14.4% 24% 8% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 8% -9.1%
10% -22.6% 8% -17.8%
15% -30.1% 6% -25.7%
20% -36.9% 5% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,818) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$10 · ×5.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.85 per $1 lost it wins $1.85
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$958
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses35 / 108
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)143 / 143
History coverage146d
Avg bet$1,369
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 143 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Jun 17 $930 −$2 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $1,257 −$2 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $2,626 −$3 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $2,764 −$4 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $1,312 −$2 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $3,988 −$4 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $358 +$4 +1%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $936 −$2 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $3,729 −$4 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $4,832 −$6 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $6,698 −$7 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $878 −$1 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $1,015 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $885 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,062 −$2 -0%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 06 $80 −$80 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 06 $67 −$67 -100%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $1,033 −$2 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $1,644 −$2 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $1,452 −$2 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 02 $397 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $140 in May? Jun 02 $563 +$1 +0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $543 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 01 $610 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $2,881 −$3 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $2,006 −$2 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $806 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $1,000 −$2 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $1,818 −$2 -0%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 213.5 May 25 $54 −$54 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 23 $62 +$99 +158%
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 22 $997 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $5,165 −$6 -0%
Will Gillian Sherratt win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? May 21 $1,043 −$1 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $4,540 −$5 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 20 $1,048 −$1 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 20 $2,779 −$4 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $1,362 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $6,127 −$7 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $3,017 −$4 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 09 $1,535 −$2 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 09 $1,515 −$2 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 08 $2,610 −$3 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $2,534 −$3 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 08 $2,449 −$3 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $1,540 −$2 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 07 $1,533 −$2 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 06 $1,548 −$2 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $1,533 −$2 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $1,470 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $928 1h
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $930 2h
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,255 42h
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,257 44h
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $993 45h
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $994 47h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,219 47h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,221 2d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,310 2d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,312 2d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $967 3d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $968 3d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? BUY No 99¢ $358 4d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $935 7d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $936 7d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $926 7d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $927 7d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,064 7d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,065 8d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $711 8d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $712 8d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $877 8d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $878 8d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,014 9d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $1,015 9d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $884 9d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $885 9d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,060 10d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,062 10d
Will France win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 77¢ $80 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 459 history records