Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:00:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
10 0x1045…08f5 other 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$29 (+6%) realized +$30 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%12W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$119now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% +$2
sports 27% −$23
world 7% +$45
politics 5% +$8
crypto 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 2 -63.2% -66.7% 0% 0% -65.9%
≤90d 31 +18.8% +7.5% 39% 39% -1.7%
all 31 +18.8% +7.5% 39% 39% -1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.5% 39% -1.7%
10% -2.8% 39% -11.1%
15% -12.2% 35% -19.7%
20% -20.8% 32% -27.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +44% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$8 · ×1.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$119
Realized+$30
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses12 / 19
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)31 / 36
History coverage71d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $80 $79 −$1 (-1%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 63¢ 88¢ $20 $28 +$8 (+39%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 10¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+37%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 59¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 30 $5 −$1 -26%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? May 17 $5 +$7 +131%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 09 $5 +$70 +1391%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Trump say "Iran" during King Charles visit? Apr 29 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $10 −$10 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-04-20? Apr 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Manchester City FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 20 $5 +$4 +90%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Apr 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 19 $5 +$11 +216%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will AS Saint-Étienne win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? Apr 16 $10 +$8 +79%
Arsenal FC vs. Sporting CP: Both Teams to Score Apr 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Manchester United FC vs. Leeds United FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 14 $10 +$8 +79%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-04-12? Apr 13 $10 +$12 +124%
Sunderland AFC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 12 $14 −$14 -99%
Sevilla FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score Apr 12 $15 +$11 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Apr 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-04-10? Apr 11 $25 +$6 +26%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-07? Apr 09 $10 +$8 +83%
Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to Score Apr 09 $30 +$12 +40%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $30 +$24 +79%
Sporting CP vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 07 $25 −$25 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $81 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $5 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 59¢ $10 16d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 63¢ $20 17d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 17d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 37d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 37d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $75 38d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 38d
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 39d
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 42d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-03? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 44d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $5 45d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 45d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 46d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 46d
Will Trump say "Iran" during King Charles visit? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 49d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 49d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 50d
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-04-20? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 58d
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 58d
Will Manchester City FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 59d
Manchester City FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $5 59d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-18? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 59d
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-04-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 60d
Will AS Saint-Étienne win on 2026-04-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 60d
Arsenal FC vs. Sporting CP: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $5 62d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 62d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 64d
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-04-12? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 65d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $118.53 · official $118.53 (match) · 84 history records