Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:25:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x1041…b7cd crypto 204 markets active 2d ago coverage 68d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 68d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$713 (-9%) realized −$713 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate54%111W / 93L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day47.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$30
14 days−$28
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$231
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -31.4% -38.0% 33% 8% -21.3%
≤30d 32 -16.0% -24.0% 50% 19% -14.9%
≤90d 204 -5.8% -14.7% 54% 11% -12.2%
all 204 -5.8% -14.7% 54% 11% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.7% 11% -12.2%
10% ← realistic here -22.9% 6% -20.6%
15% -30.3% 4% -28.2%
20% -37.2% 3% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
14.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$713
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses111 / 93
Open positions0
Markets (closed)204 / 204
History coverage68d ⚠
Avg bet$39
Trades / day47.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 204 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $13 −$3 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $45 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $21 −$6 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 12 $31 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 11 $35 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $32 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 11 $32 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 09 $8 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET May 22 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET May 22 $3 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET May 22 $5 +$5 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET May 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET May 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET May 22 $41 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET May 22 $7 −$2 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET May 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET May 22 $39 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET May 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET May 22 $4 +$6 +160%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET May 22 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET May 22 $45 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET May 22 $30 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET May 22 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET May 22 $33 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET May 22 $29 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET May 22 $35 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Apr 25 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Apr 25 $27 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Apr 25 $27 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Apr 25 $27 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Apr 25 $31 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Apr 25 $26 −$4 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Apr 25 $24 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Apr 25 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Apr 25 $37 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Apr 25 $23 −$3 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Apr 25 $35 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Apr 25 $52 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Apr 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Apr 25 $37 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Apr 25 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Apr 25 $47 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Apr 21 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Apr 21 $27 −$2 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records