Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:04:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x1041…f452 weather 210 markets active 0h ago coverage 20d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 20d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (156 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$606 (+0%) realized +$594 · open +$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate13%85W / 580L
Whale WR27%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,495per market
Trades / day155.9pace
Fees−$1,041est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$2,030now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
weather 66% −$73,467
sports 26% +$20,431
other 7% +$344
world 0% −$1,141
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (156 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-43.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 531 -78.5% -80.5% 8% 5% -31.8%
≤30d 665 -37.4% -43.3% 13% 7% -47.8%
≤90d 665 -37.4% -43.3% 13% 7% -47.8%
all 665 -37.4% -43.3% 13% 7% -47.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover155.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -43.3% 7% -47.8%
10% ← realistic here -48.8% 6% -52.8%
15% -53.7% 6% -57.3%
20% -58.2% 6% -61.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 27% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +25% → late -100% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,238 vs −$337 · ×3.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$2,030
Realized+$594
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses85 / 580
Whale WR (big bets)27%
Est. fees paid−$1,041
Open positions18
Markets (closed)665 / 210
History coverage20d ⚠
Avg bet$1,495
Trades / day155.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 665 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 17? Yes 9¢ 94¢ $91 $940 +$849 (+934%)
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Under 59¢ 60¢ $501 $505 +$4 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? Yes 9¢ 95¢ $45 $476 +$431 (+948%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 17? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $91 $60 −$31 (-34%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $45 $22 −$23 (-50%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 17? Yes 9¢ 2¢ $91 $16 −$75 (-83%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on June 17? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $91 $4 −$87 (-96%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $45 $2 −$43 (-96%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 21°C or below on June 17? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $91 $1 −$90 (-99%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $91 $0 −$90 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-99%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 17? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $90 $0 −$90 (-99%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $88 $0 −$88 (-99%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $73 $0 −$72 (-99%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on June 17? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $389 $0 −$389 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $58 $0 −$57 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 17? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 17? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 482 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on May Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 54-55°F on May 25? Jun 17 $45 −$45 -101%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on May 28? Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 48-49°F on May 13? Jun 17 $0 −$45 -248368%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on May 14? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on April 3? Jun 17 $150 −$150 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C or higher on April 2 Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 43°C on May 18? Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on May 13? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 15? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on April 23? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on April 14? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 26? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on May 31? Jun 17 $416 −$454 -109%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on May 29? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on April 16? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on April 12? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on May 13? Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 16°C on May 14? Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 21°C on May 13? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on April 12? Jun 17 $45 −$48 -106%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 16? Jun 17 $1,238 −$1,362 -110%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on May 8? Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on April 8? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 48°C on May 15? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 40°C on May 27? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on May Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on May 16? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 21°C on May 17? Jun 17 $1,079 −$1,680 -156%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on May 19? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C or higher on May 17? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on April 7? Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on April 20? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on May 17? Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 7? Jun 17 $89 −$100 -112%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 74°F or higher on April 19? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on May 6? Jun 17 $871 −$909 -104%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C or higher on May 7? Jun 17 $37 −$45 -124%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 98-99°F on May 29? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on April 16? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 20°C on April 8? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 68-69°F on April 2? Jun 17 $880 −$1,748 -199%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on May 18? Jun 17 $373 −$454 -122%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on April 15? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C or higher on April 22? Jun 17 $7 −$15 -224%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on May 6? Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on May 1? Jun 17 $389 −$448 -115%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 18? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on May 13? Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be -1°C on April 9? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $30 4m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $14 5m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $22 9m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $70 13m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $365 13m
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 17? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 30m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 95¢ $64 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 95¢ $126 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $90 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $340 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $2,299 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $1 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $1,502 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $288 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $1 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $15 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $3 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $96 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $48 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $8 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $7 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $10 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $10 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $480 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $1 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $10 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $1 3h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $3 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,029.71 · official $2,033.96 (match) · 3500 history records