Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:24:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
10 0x103e…75d1 crypto 136 markets active 1h ago coverage 614d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$37 (+0%) realized +$33 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate95%123W / 7L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$191per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$117now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 55% +$14
crypto 45% +$20
other 0% +$1
tech 0% $0
world 0% +$3
economics 0% +$2
sports 0% −$4
culture 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 5 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 29 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 130 -0.0% -9.5% 95% 16% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 16% -9.4%
10% -18.2% 6% -18.1%
15% -26.1% 3% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 2% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.47 per $1 lost it wins $2.47
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

614d coverage
Net worth$117
Realized+$33
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses123 / 7
Open positions6
Markets (closed)130 / 136
History coverage614d
Avg bet$191
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 130 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $88 $88 −$0 (-0%)
StandX FDV above $800M one day after launch? No 41¢ 81¢ $7 $14 +$7 (+99%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 in June? No 89¢ 94¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 88¢ 40¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-55%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,200 on June 15? Jun 19 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 9? Jun 13 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $104 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control Jun 03 $4 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 15? May 30 $180 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 11? May 14 $176 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 9? May 10 $172 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 7? May 08 $179 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 4? May 06 $179 $0 +0%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026? May 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 02 $3 $0 +7%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April? May 02 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 30? May 02 $160 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 30 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 27? Apr 29 $163 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 24? Apr 26 $161 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on April 19? Apr 20 $170 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 18? Apr 19 $171 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,700 on April 17? Apr 18 $161 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 15? Apr 16 $166 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 11? Apr 13 $172 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 9? Apr 10 $168 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 7? Apr 08 $168 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 6? Apr 07 $173 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 3? Apr 05 $171 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on April 1? Apr 02 $167 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA reach $228 in March? Apr 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 30? Mar 31 $161 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 27? Mar 28 $163 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 25? Mar 26 $170 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on March 22? Mar 23 $164 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on March 20? Mar 21 $172 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on March 18? Mar 19 $168 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 16? Mar 17 $172 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on March 14? Mar 15 $173 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on March 12? Mar 13 $175 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,500 on March 10? Mar 11 $169 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on March 8? Mar 09 $175 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 1? Mar 07 $173 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 27? Feb 28 $174 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $76,000 on February 24? Feb 25 $172 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 20? Feb 21 $170 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 17? Feb 19 $170 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on February 16? Feb 16 $172 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on February 15? Feb 15 $168 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on February 1 Feb 13 $170 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on February 1 Feb 12 $169 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,700 and $2,800 on February 9? Feb 10 $168 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,800 and $2,900 on February 7? Feb 08 $171 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $98,000 on February 3? Feb 04 $169 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $88 1h
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $4 5d
Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $4 5d
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 in June? BUY No 89¢ $5 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,200 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $101 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $104 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $104 21d
Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control BUY No 99¢ $4 35d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $180 41d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 11? BUY No 100¢ $176 45d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $172 47d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $179 49d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $179 52d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 30? BUY No 100¢ $160 56d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $163 59d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $161 62d
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 62d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April? BUY No 99¢ $5 62d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on April 19? BUY No 100¢ $170 66d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 18? BUY No 100¢ $171 67d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,700 on April 17? BUY No 100¢ $161 69d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 15? BUY No 100¢ $166 72d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY No 100¢ $6 73d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 93¢ $3 73d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $172 75d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 9? BUY No 100¢ $168 76d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 7? BUY No 100¢ $168 78d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 6? BUY No 100¢ $173 79d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 3? BUY No 100¢ $171 83d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on April 1? BUY No 100¢ $167 85d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $117.05 · official $117.05 (match) · 370 history records