Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:12:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x103e…78b5 weather 131 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,115 (-12%) realized −$1,095 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate34%42W / 83L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day12.3pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$112
7 days+$506
14 days−$794
30 days−$1,323
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$1,347
other 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-23.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +19.3% +8.0% 29% 29% +38.1%
≤30d 125 -15.8% -23.8% 34% 33% -22.5%
≤90d 125 -15.8% -23.8% 34% 33% -22.5%
all 125 -15.8% -23.8% 34% 33% -22.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.8% 33% -22.5%
10% -31.1% 32% -29.9%
15% -37.7% 30% -36.7%
20% -43.8% 26% -42.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$79 vs −$56 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$1,095
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses42 / 83
Open positions6
Markets (closed)125 / 131
History coverage20d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day12.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 125 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $11 $16 +$6 (+50%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 16? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? Yes 15¢ 5¢ $20 $6 −$14 (-69%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C or below on June 16? Yes 25¢ 11¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-55%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-25%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C or below on June 16? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-78%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 51 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 +$60 +570%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 14? Jun 15 $31 +$90 +290%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $21 −$9 -46%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 13 $21 −$14 -65%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 14? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 13? Jun 13 $10 −$9 -83%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $21 +$63 +303%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 −$8 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $10 −$7 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 14? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $21 −$13 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? Jun 12 $42 −$40 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C or higher on June 13? Jun 12 $37 −$35 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $31 −$30 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 12? Jun 11 $21 −$20 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C or below on June 12? Jun 11 $52 −$50 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 11? Jun 11 $31 +$116 +370%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 12? Jun 11 $16 −$15 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $42 +$180 +432%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $42 +$128 +309%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 11 $31 −$30 -96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 11 $10 +$8 +73%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$6 +55%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 71°F or below on June Jun 10 $83 −$80 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 10? Jun 09 $31 −$30 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 10? Jun 09 $31 −$30 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $109 +$309 +284%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 08 $57 +$52 +90%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 8? Jun 08 $78 −$21 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 7? Jun 07 $193 −$115 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 7? Jun 07 $62 −$60 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C or below on June 6? Jun 05 $52 −$50 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 5? Jun 05 $103 −$100 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 4? Jun 04 $40 +$10 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 4? Jun 04 $103 +$100 +97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 5? Jun 04 $82 −$80 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 5? Jun 04 $83 −$80 -97%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 5? Jun 04 $21 −$20 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Jun Jun 04 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 4? Jun 04 $102 −$100 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 04 $102 −$100 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 4? Jun 04 $203 +$102 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 4? Jun 04 $103 −$100 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 4? Jun 04 $102 −$100 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 4? Jun 03 $122 −$120 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? SELL Yes 24¢ $21 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? SELL Yes 49¢ $49 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C or below on June 16? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 14? SELL Yes 100¢ $121 4h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C or below on June 16? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 13h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 14? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 15h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 16h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 16h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 14? BUY Yes 34¢ $21 19h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 14? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 19h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 14? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 19h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 22h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 14? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 25h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on June 14? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 25h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 14? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 26h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C or below on June 14? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 26h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 13? SELL Yes 15¢ $11 37h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju SELL Yes 9¢ $7 37h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 14? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 37h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 13? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 42h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 25¢ $21 42h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 13? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 43h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on June 13? SELL Yes 99¢ $84 44h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 13? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 44h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C or higher on June 13? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 44h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY Yes 24¢ $21 47h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C or higher on June 13? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 13? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 14? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.42 · official $41.42 (match) · 287 history records