Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T01:45:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x1039…6595 other 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 40d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-3%) realized −$20 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%2W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$157now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$14
14 days−$14
30 days−$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% −$7
crypto 10% −$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -5.4% -14.4% 25% 25% -15.3%
≤30d 5 -24.3% -31.5% 20% 20% -26.6%
≤90d 7 -13.3% -21.6% 29% 29% -25.9%
all 7 -13.3% -21.6% 29% 29% -25.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.6% 29% -25.9%
10% -29.1% 14% -33.0%
15% -35.9% 14% -39.5%
20% -42.2% 14% -45.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$13 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$157
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses2 / 5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage40d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 19¢ $150 $157 +$7 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $102 −$20 -20%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $72 +$12 +17%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $32 −$5 -17%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $9 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? May 30 $34 −$33 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET May 16 $4 +$5 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET May 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $59 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $45 15h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $11 16h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $55 29h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $27 3d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $27 4d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $47 5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $154 5d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $32 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 88¢ $9 5d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $23 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $9 6d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 6d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $29 7d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $25 14d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? BUY Yes 4¢ $12 26d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 26d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 26d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 26d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 26d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 26d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 26d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? BUY Yes 4¢ $11 26d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? BUY Yes 6¢ $8 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $9 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $4 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $156.74 · official $156.74 (match) · 42 history records