Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:52:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x1039…2914 sports 628 markets active 1h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$28 (-0%) realized −$32 · open +$4
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate65%404W / 217L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$107now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$9
14 days+$28
30 days+$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$31
other 0% +$2
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +0.5% -9.1% 48% 48% -6.1%
≤30d 31 +8.6% -1.7% 48% 48% -1.7%
≤90d 247 -20.4% -27.9% 48% 44% -30.5%
all 621 +1.3% -8.3% 65% 57% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 57% -9.6%
10% -17.1% 50% -18.2%
15% -25.1% 37% -26.1%
20% -32.4% 23% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +12% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$38 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$107
Realized−$32
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses404 / 217
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions7
Markets (closed)621 / 628
History coverage149d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 621 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Nottingham 2: Oliver Tarvet vs Roman Safiullin Oliver Tarvet 42¢ 40¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-4%)
Royan: Leo Raquillet vs Manoj Dhamne Manas Manoj Dhamne Manas 63¢ 68¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+7%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Over 90¢ 100¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+11%)
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez Leylah Fernandez 64¢ 63¢ $9 $8 −$0 (-2%)
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Lorenzo Giustino Maks Kasnikowski 64¢ 65¢ $7 $8 +$0 (+2%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Over 80¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+25%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Over 84¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Monastir: Dominick Mosejczuk vs Cesar Bouchelaghem Jun 14 $7 +$4 +56%
ITF Monastir: Victoria Milovanova vs Aspen Schuman Jun 14 $11 +$9 +85%
ITF Martos: Joao Domingues vs Pablo Martinez Gomez Jun 14 $9 −$9 -99%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Veronika Erjavec Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Marin Cilic Jun 13 $6 +$4 +61%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Kamilla Rakhimo Jun 13 $17 $0 +0%
Cattolica: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Marco Cecchinato Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Modena: Noemi Basiletti vs Varvara Lepchenko Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Ilkley: Kyrian Jacquet vs Toby Samuel Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bratislava: Vitaliy Sachko vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Tucuman: Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Centurion 2 (Doubles): Azkara/Duran vs Montsi/Schalkwyk Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Cattolica: Francesco Forti vs Andrea Guerrieri Jun 11 $12 −$12 -100%
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Julia Grabher Jun 11 $2 +$5 +257%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $9 +$32 +354%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Hynek Barton Jun 11 $15 +$8 +53%
Cattolica: Alexander Vasilev vs Andrea Guerrieri Jun 10 $8 +$3 +42%
Stuttgart Open: Diego Dedura-Palomero vs James Duckworth Jun 09 $14 +$6 +46%
Ilkley: Dane Sweeny vs Oliver Okonkwo Jun 09 $11 +$5 +43%
Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Pavel Kotov Jun 09 $18 +$7 +38%
Bratislava: Federico Cina vs Marko Topo Jun 08 $9 +$5 +50%
Lyon: Luka Pavlovic vs Daniel Galan Jun 08 $14 +$17 +127%
Cattolica: Liam Broady vs Alexander Vasilev Jun 07 $22 $0 -2%
Cattolica: Luka Mikrut vs Ioannis Xilas Jun 07 $27 −$1 -2%
Cattolica: Max Hans Rehberg vs Stefano Travaglia Jun 07 $9 $0 +0%
Tyler: Karl Poling vs Andre Ilagan Jun 06 $10 +$3 +31%
Centurion 2: Khololwam Montsi vs Alexander Donski Jun 06 $6 +$10 +172%
Stuttgart Open, Qualification: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Daniil Glinka Jun 06 $13 +$7 +55%
US Men's Clay Court Championships: Adolfo Vallejo vs Tommy Paul Apr 02 $20 +$7 +37%
San Luis Potosi: James Duckworth vs Miguel Tobon Apr 02 $17 +$8 +47%
Menorca: Miguel Damas vs Abedallah Shelbayh Apr 02 $10 −$10 -100%
US Men's Clay Court Championships: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Mackenzie Apr 02 $8 −$8 -100%
Copa Colsanitas: Katarzyna Kawa vs Tatjana Maria Apr 02 $8 −$8 -100%
Bucharest Open: Nuno Borges vs Damir Dzumhur Apr 02 $16 −$16 -100%
Celtics vs. Heat Apr 02 $18 +$10 +56%
Hawks vs. Magic Apr 02 $12 +$7 +61%
Pacers vs. Bulls Apr 02 $15 −$14 -97%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 02 $2 +$8 +509%
Grand Prix Hassan II: Timofey Skatov vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli Apr 02 $10 +$5 +52%
Credit One Charleston Open: Sara Bejlek vs Akasha Urhobo Apr 02 $11 +$5 +52%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Oh My God (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qualifier Apr 02 $18 +$2 +12%
Credit One Charleston Open: Ashlyn Krueger vs Caty McNally Apr 02 $10 +$11 +108%
Menorca: Valentin Royer vs Edas Butvilas Apr 02 $14 +$7 +47%
Bucharest Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Alex Molcan Apr 02 $11 +$15 +144%
Credit One Charleston Open: Yue Yuan vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto Apr 02 $19 +$7 +36%
Credit One Charleston Open: Madison Keys vs Donna Vekic Apr 02 $21 +$8 +39%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qualif Apr 02 $48 +$2 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 80¢ $5 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 84¢ $5 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $10 1h
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Leylah Fernandez 64¢ $9 1h
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Lorenzo Giustino BUY Maks Kasnikowski 64¢ $6 7h
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Lorenzo Giustino BUY Maks Kasnikowski 64¢ $2 7h
Royan: Leo Raquillet vs Manoj Dhamne Manas BUY Manoj Dhamne Manas 63¢ $16 9h
Nottingham 2: Oliver Tarvet vs Roman Safiullin BUY Oliver Tarvet 42¢ $0 9h
Nottingham 2: Oliver Tarvet vs Roman Safiullin BUY Oliver Tarvet 42¢ $1 9h
Nottingham 2: Oliver Tarvet vs Roman Safiullin BUY Oliver Tarvet 42¢ $2 16h
ITF Monastir: Dominick Mosejczuk vs Cesar Bouchelaghem BUY Cesar Bouchelaghem 64¢ $7 20h
ITF Monastir: Victoria Milovanova vs Aspen Schuman BUY Victoria Milovanova 54¢ $11 22h
Nottingham 2: Oliver Tarvet vs Roman Safiullin BUY Oliver Tarvet 42¢ $22 23h
ITF Martos: Joao Domingues vs Pablo Martinez Gomez BUY Joao Domingues 54¢ $9 25h
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Veronika Erjavec BUY Veronika Erjavec 23¢ $5 35h
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Veronika Erjavec BUY Veronika Erjavec 23¢ $0 35h
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Veronika Erjavec BUY Veronika Erjavec 23¢ $0 35h
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Veronika Erjavec BUY Veronika Erjavec 23¢ $0 35h
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Veronika Erjavec BUY Veronika Erjavec 23¢ $1 38h
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Kamilla Rakhimo BUY Kamilla Rakhimova 50¢ $17 39h
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Marin Cilic BUY Daniil Medvedev 62¢ $2 2d
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Marin Cilic BUY Daniil Medvedev 62¢ $2 2d
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Marin Cilic BUY Daniil Medvedev 62¢ $3 2d
Cattolica: Francesco Forti vs Andrea Guerrieri BUY Andrea Guerrieri 57¢ $2 3d
Cattolica: Francesco Forti vs Andrea Guerrieri BUY Andrea Guerrieri 57¢ $10 3d
Tucuman: Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida BUY Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez 26¢ $5 3d
Tucuman: Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida BUY Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez 26¢ $1 3d
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Hynek Barton BUY Hynek Barton 50¢ $1 3d
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Hynek Barton BUY Hynek Barton 50¢ $8 4d
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Julia Grabher BUY Lucia Bronzetti 28¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $106.51 · official $106.51 (match) · 1774 history records