Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T15:04:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x1035…172c other 95 markets active 1h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$677 (+1%) realized +$677 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate7%7W / 87L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$1,335per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$607now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$8
14 days−$9
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 45% −$78
other 44% +$1,012
economics 6% −$7
sports 2% −$122
crypto 1% −$2
world 1% −$179
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 20 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 94 -1.7% -11.0% 7% 4% -9.1%
all 94 -1.7% -11.0% 7% 4% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 4% -9.1%
10% -19.5% 4% -17.8%
15% -27.3% 4% -25.7%
20% -34.4% 4% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 93% · top 2 97% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,630) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$164 vs −$6 · ×27.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.18 per $1 lost it wins $2.18
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$607
Realized+$677
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses7 / 87
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)94 / 95
History coverage88d
Avg bet$1,335
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $607 $607 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 27 $1,874 −$2 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 26 $236 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 26 $1,297 −$2 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 25 $2,120 −$3 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $202 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $686 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $690 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $1,011 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $873 +$2 +0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 14 $230 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 12 $762 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $841 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $2,413 −$3 -0%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $975 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $892 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $2,376 −$3 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $1,034 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 04 $453 +$1 +0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $714 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $558 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $1,000 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $2,402 −$4 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $1,023 −$2 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $998 −$2 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $1,005 −$2 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $802 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 22 $2,593 −$3 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $902 −$1 -0%
Spread: Knicks (-7.5) May 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $1,583 −$2 -0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? May 19 $1,093 −$4 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $1,557 −$2 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $3,110 −$3 -0%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs May 19 $28 +$39 +140%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $2,268 −$4 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 18 $3,237 −$4 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $1,488 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 17 $3,094 −$5 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $4,719 −$7 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $1,582 −$2 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $1,523 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $1,684 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 15 $2,999 −$4 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 14 $3,358 −$4 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 14 $1,420 −$2 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $2,935 −$4 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $1,538 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $1,522 −$2 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 13 $1,621 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $236 1h
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $236 6h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $236 28h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $236 32h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $300 32h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $300 37h
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $296 2d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $297 2d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $607 6d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $202 8d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $202 8d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $685 8d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $686 8d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $689 8d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $690 8d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $404 9d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $404 9d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $229 12d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $230 13d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $873 15d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $761 15d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $762 15d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $840 15d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $841 15d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,024 16d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,026 16d
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $974 20d
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $975 20d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $891 21d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $892 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $607.33 · official $607.33 (match) · 285 history records