Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:19:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x1033…9db9 weather 618 markets active 2h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$196 (-1%) realized −$197 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate90%530W / 59L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day14.9pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$1,212now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$88
14 days−$274
30 days−$157
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 31% −$113
other 24% $0
crypto 12% −$22
politics 10% −$33
sports 9% −$70
world 7% +$17
economics 2% −$1
finance 2% +$18
culture 1% +$4
tech 1% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 115 -4.9% -13.9% 90% 17% -12.5%
≤30d 384 -4.5% -13.6% 91% 15% -11.1%
≤90d 589 -3.2% -12.5% 90% 13% -10.8%
all 589 -3.2% -12.5% 90% 13% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 13% -10.8%
10% -20.8% 2% -19.4%
15% -28.5% 1% -27.2%
20% -35.5% 1% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$12 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$1,212
Realized−$197
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses530 / 59
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions29
Markets (closed)589 / 618
History coverage72d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day14.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 29 History 589 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 3.0% and 4.0%? No 99¢ 99¢ $140 $139 −$1 (-0%)
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $124 $125 +$1 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 97¢ 98¢ $92 $93 +$1 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 97¢ 99¢ $83 $85 +$2 (+2%)
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to less than 5 years in prison? No 96¢ 98¢ $61 $62 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 18? No 99¢ 99¢ $59 $60 +$0 (+0%)
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 8.0% and 9.0%? No 100¢ 100¢ $59 $59 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 17? No 99¢ 99¢ $57 $57 +$0 (+0%)
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 97¢ 99¢ $54 $55 +$1 (+2%)
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 96¢ 96¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 90¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-3%)
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 3 Jordan? No 99¢ 100¢ $33 $33 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on June 17? No 99¢ 99¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $27 $27 +$0 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $27 $27 +$0 (+1%)
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 2 DR Congo? No 99¢ 99¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Yes 26¢ 35¢ $17 $23 +$6 (+34%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 17? No 97¢ 100¢ $22 $23 +$1 (+3%)
Will Andrés Gómez be in Colombia's Starting 11? No 94¢ 94¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? No 98¢ 98¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 18? No 99¢ 99¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? No 94¢ 92¢ $19 $18 −$0 (-2%)
Will Alexander Command be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 17 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 16? Jun 16 $31 $0 +1%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $9 +$1 +13%
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June Jun 16 $10 +$1 +6%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 47 and 48 million views on day 3 Jun 16 $10 +$1 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $66 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 94-95°F on June 15? Jun 16 $31 $0 +1%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 16 $10 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 16 $32 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $17 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 15? Jun 15 $31 $0 +1%
Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be greater than 13m? Jun 15 $17 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $31 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $18 +$2 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 +$2 +20%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $10 +$2 +16%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 41 and 43 million views on day 2 Jun 15 $12 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $9 +$2 +18%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $12 +$5 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16? Jun 15 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 14? Jun 15 $19 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 14? Jun 15 $26 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 14? Jun 15 $30 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 9°C on June 14? Jun 15 $24 +$1 +4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -82%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 3 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $22 $0 +1%
Will Jesper Svensson win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 15 $10 +$2 +17%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $15 +$1 +8%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 14 $15 +$1 +8%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Neither team to score first? Jun 14 $18 +$1 +8%
Will Yuito Suzuki be in Japan's Starting 11? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 14? Jun 14 $26 +$1 +3%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $35 +$1 +2%
Keflavik IF vs. FH Hafnarfjordur: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $26 +$1 +3%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $25 $0 +1%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $24 $0 +2%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 14? Jun 14 $22 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 14 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $26 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $29 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $26 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $27 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $15 +$1 +8%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +13%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 +$1 +11%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 13? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $19 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $20 2h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $14 3h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $15 3h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $16 3h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $16 4h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $17 4h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $17 4h
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 2 DR Congo? BUY No 99¢ $26 5h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $27 7h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $28 7h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY No 88¢ $9 12h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $22 12h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $26 13h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $18 13h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $27 13h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $19 13h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $19 13h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY No 94¢ $19 15h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $29 16h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $31 16h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY No 98¢ $29 28h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $31 29h
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 3 Jordan? BUY No 99¢ $33 30h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? BUY No 92¢ $10 35h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 47 and 48 million views on day 3 BUY No 92¢ $10 35h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner BUY SPARTA 86¢ $10 35h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $28 35h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $30 35h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $29 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,211.73 · official $1,211.79 (match) · 1717 history records