Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T10:48:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

10
0x1033…49d4
sports · 53 markets active 2h ago
2.0score
−$245 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$405 · open −$18
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$81
Realized−$405
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses30 / 21
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions2
Markets (closed)51 / 53
History coverage80d
Avg bet$104
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%
Chart Positions 2 History 51 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$61
7 days+$61
14 days+$61
30 days−$59
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bank of America (BAC) Q2 provision for credit losses be above $1.2B? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI T1 64¢ 42¢ $49 $32 −$17 (-35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $50 +$131 +262%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $120 −$20 -17%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 19 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 19 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: T1 vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? May 02 $102 −$8 -7%
LoL: Top Esports vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Apple (AAPL) beat quarterly earnings? Apr 30 $100 +$15 +16%
LoL: SK Gaming vs Galions (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Pla Apr 30 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Merck & Co (MRK) beat quarterly earnings? Apr 30 $100 +$21 +21%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 29 $10 +$3 +27%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO3) - Esports World Cup North America Q Apr 29 $352 −$192 -54%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Solary (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Apr 29 $101 +$40 +40%
LoL: Fnatic vs Shifters (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Playo Apr 28 $101 +$54 +53%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers Leag Apr 28 $20 +$8 +42%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 27? Apr 27 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Shifters vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Apr 26 $50 +$13 +26%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 26? Apr 26 $10 +$5 +50%
LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 26 $100 +$18 +18%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 26 $300 −$4 -1%
LoL: Fnatic vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Apr 25 $400 +$88 +22%
Will eBay (EBAY) beat quarterly earnings? Apr 25 $50 +$4 +7%
Will Eli Lilly and Co (LLY) beat quarterly earnings? Apr 25 $100 +$14 +14%
LoL: Shifters vs Fnatic (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Apr 24 $120 −$5 -4%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 24 $100 +$4 +4%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 24 $50 +$14 +29%
Valorant: GIANTX vs Fnatic (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Omega Apr 23 $10 +$10 +99%
Will Blackstone (BX) beat quarterly earnings? Apr 23 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 23 $100 $0 -0%
LoL: LGD Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana Apr 23 $110 −$2 -2%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 22 $200 +$11 +5%
Will Halliburton (HAL) beat quarterly earnings? Apr 21 $100 +$27 +28%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers (BO3) - LCK Chall Apr 21 $30 −$30 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 19 $100 +$40 +40%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Apr 19 $100 +$16 +16%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 19 $270 +$52 +19%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 18 $100 +$18 +18%
Will Delta Air Lines (DAL) beat quarterly earnings? Apr 08 $100 +$16 +16%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 04 $200 −$200 -100%
Over $10M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Apr 01 $100 −$100 -100%
Over $14M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Apr 01 $100 −$100 -100%
Over $18M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Apr 01 $100 −$100 -100%
Over $35M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Apr 01 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Nike (NKE) beat quarterly earnings? Apr 01 $100 +$35 +34%
Will Virgin Galactic (SPCE) beat quarterly earnings? Mar 31 $70 +$15 +22%
Based FDV above $75M one day after launch? Mar 30 $200 +$26 +13%
Based FDV above $50M one day after launch? Mar 30 $300 +$24 +8%
Based FDV above $100M one day after launch? Mar 30 $50 +$20 +40%
Over $6M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Mar 26 $100 +$15 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 63% −$241
other 24% −$314
finance 13% +$138
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 64¢ $50 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $181 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner SELL Gen.G 63¢ $100 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 79¢ $50 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 75¢ $50 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 65¢ $20 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 27¢ $50 2h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 39¢ $50 6h
Will Bank of America (BAC) Q2 provision for credit losses be above $1. BUY Yes 91¢ $50 5d
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL No 73¢ $94 42d
LoL: Top Esports vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY Top Esports 44¢ $20 44d
LoL: SK Gaming vs Galions (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Pla BUY Galions 73¢ $101 44d
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY No 76¢ $102 46d
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO3) - Esports World Cup North America Q BUY Team Liquid 80¢ $201 46d
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO3) - Esports World Cup North America Q SELL Team Liquid 72¢ $161 46d
LoL: Team Vitality vs Solary (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier BUY Team Vitality 71¢ $101 46d
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO3) - Esports World Cup North America Q BUY Team Liquid 67¢ $101 46d
LoL: Fnatic vs Shifters (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Playo SELL Fnatic 96¢ $155 46d
LoL: Fnatic vs Shifters (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Playo BUY Fnatic 62¢ $101 46d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers Leag BUY T1 Academy 70¢ $20 47d
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO3) - Esports World Cup North America Q BUY Team Liquid 65¢ $50 47d
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY T1 78¢ $10 47d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY KT Rolster 46¢ $10 47d
LoL: Shifters vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - LEC Regular Season BUY Natus Vincere 79¢ $50 48d
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 SELL Gen.G 93¢ $296 48d
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Gen.G 94¢ $200 49d
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Gen.G 94¢ $100 49d
LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY T1 84¢ $100 49d
LoL: Fnatic vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - LEC Regular Season BUY Natus Vincere 73¢ $300 49d
LoL: Fnatic vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - LEC Regular Season SELL Natus Vincere 51¢ $79 49d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +48.3% +34.2% 33% 33% +15.4%
≤30d 6 -25.8% -32.9% 17% 17% -25.3%
≤90d 51 -9.3% -17.9% 59% 49% -16.3%
all 51 -9.3% -17.9% 59% 49% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.9% 49% -16.3%
10% -25.8% 25% -24.3%
15% -33.0% 16% -31.6%
20% -39.5% 6% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $81.36 · official $81.36 (match) · 119 history records