Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:41:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x1030…3e3a finance 44 markets active 0h ago coverage 63d ⚠
BOTnot copyable finance specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Wins small, loses big⚠ Covers last 62d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (51 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$11,511 (-18%) realized −$11,510 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate56%24W / 19L
Whale WR27%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,489per market
Trades / day51.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$279now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 63d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 55% +$406
other 38% −$2,075
crypto 4% +$15
world 2% +$271
sports 0% −$110
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (51 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -1.6% -11.0% 33% 0% -11.2%
≤30d 17 -6.1% -15.1% 47% 24% -14.2%
≤90d 43 -3.0% -12.3% 56% 40% -11.6%
all 43 -3.0% -12.3% 56% 40% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover51.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.3% 40% -11.6%
10% -20.6% 26% -20.1%
15% ← realistic here -28.3% 0% -27.8%
20% -35.3% 0% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 27% (≥$2,075) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
69.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$152 vs −$271 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$279
Realized−$11,510
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses24 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)27%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)43 / 44
History coverage63d ⚠
Avg bet$1,489
Trades / day51.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 17? Up 62¢ 62¢ $280 $279 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $4,948 −$155 -3%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $3,987 −$99 -2%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $3,132 +$24 +1%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $1,199 +$289 +24%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $2,019 −$59 -3%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 29? May 29 $1,102 +$330 +30%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 28? May 28 $2,418 +$99 +4%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 27? May 27 $4,294 −$653 -15%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 21? May 21 $6,121 −$1,128 -18%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 21? May 21 $2,075 −$367 -18%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 20? May 20 $995 +$30 +3%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 19? May 19 $2,190 +$32 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET May 19 $796 −$270 -34%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 19 $110 −$110 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 18 $527 +$97 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET May 18 $357 +$42 +12%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 18? May 18 $3,924 −$168 -4%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 18? May 18 $51 −$35 -68%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 14? May 14 $963 +$301 +31%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 14? May 14 $126 −$10 -8%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 13? May 13 $1,681 +$412 +24%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 13? May 13 $858 −$356 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET May 12 $215 +$66 +31%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 12? May 12 $810 +$223 +28%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 11? May 11 $1,137 +$4 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET May 07 $259 +$68 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET May 07 $250 +$57 +23%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 7? May 07 $947 +$3 +0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 7? May 07 $1,877 −$170 -9%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 6? May 06 $550 +$110 +20%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 4? May 04 $3,319 −$515 -16%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET May 04 $283 −$66 -24%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 28? Apr 28 $260 −$42 -16%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 27? Apr 27 $2,178 −$628 -29%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 24? Apr 24 $1,205 +$206 +17%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 23? Apr 23 $1,636 +$76 +5%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 21? Apr 21 $1,106 +$306 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Apr 18 $231 +$33 +14%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 17? Apr 17 $1,263 +$300 +24%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 16? Apr 16 $1,136 −$299 -26%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 16? Apr 16 $1,134 +$273 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 12AM ET Apr 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? Apr 15 $1,564 +$271 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 66¢ $33 21m
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 66¢ $33 27m
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 65¢ $33 55m
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 65¢ $33 57m
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 61¢ $31 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 60¢ $30 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 60¢ $30 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 59¢ $30 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 59¢ $30 1h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 97¢ $761 17h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 97¢ $0 17h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 97¢ $34 17h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 97¢ $0 17h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 97¢ $600 17h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 97¢ $31 17h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 97¢ $31 17h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 97¢ $31 17h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 97¢ $5 17h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 83¢ $33 18h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 83¢ $7 18h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 83¢ $22 18h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 83¢ $12 18h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 24¢ $12 18h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 86¢ $43 18h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 23¢ $12 18h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 87¢ $44 18h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 87¢ $24 18h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 87¢ $20 18h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 85¢ $43 18h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 84¢ $36 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $279.00 · official $279.00 (match) · 3500 history records