Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:09:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
10 0x102f…2ffb sports 62 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$125 (+4%) realized +$140 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate94%44W / 3L
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day24.7pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$743now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% +$159
crypto 23% −$47
other 13% +$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 +5.3% -4.7% 94% 57% -2.9%
≤30d 47 +5.3% -4.7% 94% 57% -2.9%
≤90d 47 +5.3% -4.7% 94% 57% -2.9%
all 47 +5.3% -4.7% 94% 57% -2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.7% 57% -2.9%
10% ← realistic here -13.8% 9% -12.2%
15% -22.2% 0% -20.7%
20% -29.8% 0% -28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$38 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.55 per $1 lost it wins $2.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$743
Realized+$140
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses44 / 3
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions15
Markets (closed)47 / 62
History coverage2d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day24.7
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: QoR vs YFT Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage YFT Esports 73¢ 100¢ $61 $84 +$23 (+37%)
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Austria 90¢ 100¢ $62 $68 +$7 (+11%)
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Under 89¢ 92¢ $63 $65 +$2 (+4%)
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 5.5 Under 90¢ 100¢ $57 $63 +$6 (+11%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? No 85¢ 84¢ $64 $62 −$1 (-2%)
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? No 91¢ 100¢ $55 $60 +$5 (+10%)
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 27? No 95¢ 100¢ $56 $59 +$3 (+5%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 22-28? No 95¢ 94¢ $53 $53 −$0 (-0%)
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Algeria 90¢ 100¢ $30 $33 +$3 (+11%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 27? No 95¢ 100¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+5%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 28? No 93¢ 98¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+5%)
Will Bitcoin reach $61,000 on June 27? No 93¢ 100¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+7%)
Will the game go to extra innings?: Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels No 95¢ 50¢ $19 $10 −$9 (-47%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 28? No 96¢ 98¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+2%)
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 Under 84¢ 0¢ $57 $0 −$57 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 28 $57 +$6 +11%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $61 +$14 +23%
Spread: DR Congo (-2.5) Jun 28 $67 +$9 +13%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 28 $66 +$7 +11%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 28 $61 +$7 +11%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 4.5 Jun 28 $61 +$9 +14%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $56 +$10 +18%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $56 +$3 +5%
Spread: Croatia (-2.5) Jun 27 $57 +$6 +11%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 4.5 Jun 27 $58 +$5 +8%
Panama vs. England: O/U 5.5 Jun 27 $57 +$7 +12%
Ethereum above 1,600 on June 27, 2PM ET? Jun 27 $36 +$7 +19%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 27? Jun 27 $12 −$12 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 27? Jun 27 $60 +$10 +16%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 27 $56 +$10 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 27? Jun 27 $47 −$46 -99%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 27 $56 +$5 +10%
Spread: Egypt (-2.5) Jun 27 $56 +$2 +4%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 27 $60 +$6 +10%
Spread: Belgium (-5.5) Jun 27 $56 +$3 +5%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: New Zealand 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $55 +$2 +4%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: New Zealand O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $56 +$13 +23%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 26? Jun 27 $41 +$4 +10%
Will Bitcoin reach $61,000 on June 26? Jun 27 $55 +$5 +9%
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? Jun 27 $57 +$7 +12%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 27? Jun 27 $56 −$55 -99%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $34 +$3 +10%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $64 +$14 +21%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $64 +$15 +23%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,400 and $1,500 on June 26? Jun 26 $12 +$1 +7%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 26? Jun 26 $54 +$10 +18%
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? Jun 26 $49 +$4 +8%
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) Jun 26 $53 +$8 +14%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 26 $53 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin above 59,800 on June 25, 3PM ET? Jun 26 $52 +$12 +23%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 26 $53 +$6 +11%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 26 $38 +$7 +17%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $47 +$6 +13%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $49 +$3 +6%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 26 $49 +$6 +13%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 25? Jun 26 $52 +$4 +7%
Ethereum above 1,580 on June 25, 3PM ET? Jun 26 $52 +$9 +17%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $50 +$3 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 25? Jun 26 $1 $0 +11%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $53 +$5 +10%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $49 +$6 +13%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $49 +$8 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY No 85¢ $64 25m
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 89¢ $63 1h
Valorant: QoR vs YFT Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group BUY YFT Esports 73¢ $62 2h
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Austria 90¢ $62 2h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 84¢ $58 2h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Algeria 90¢ $30 2h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 90¢ $57 2h
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? BUY No 91¢ $55 2h
Will the game go to extra innings?: Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY No 95¢ $19 3h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 90¢ $57 4h
Will Bitcoin reach $61,000 on June 27? BUY No 93¢ $11 5h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 22-28? BUY No 95¢ $54 9h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 28? BUY No 96¢ $9 10h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 28? BUY No 93¢ $14 11h
Ethereum above 1,600 on June 27, 2PM ET? BUY No 83¢ $36 11h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 27? BUY No 83¢ $12 11h
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 27? BUY No 95¢ $56 11h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 27? BUY Down 84¢ $47 18h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 90¢ $66 22h
Spread: DR Congo (-2.5) BUY Uzbekistan 88¢ $67 22h
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 27? BUY No 95¢ $19 22h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 81¢ $61 22h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 87¢ $61 22h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Colombia 90¢ $61 22h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Portugal 91¢ $60 22h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 92¢ $58 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 27? BUY No 85¢ $60 23h
Spread: Croatia (-2.5) BUY Ghana 90¢ $57 23h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 84¢ $56 24h
Panama vs. England: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 89¢ $57 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $743.22 · official $743.22 (match) · 110 history records