Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:48:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x102f…fffa world 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 425d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$18 (-1%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate28%15W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% −$10
other 22% −$1
politics 15% −$1
crypto 8% $0
economics 3% $0
culture 2% $0
sports 0% −$5
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.5% -9.1% 43% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 18 -6.9% -15.8% 22% 0% -10.9%
≤90d 18 -6.9% -15.8% 22% 0% -10.9%
all 53 -7.9% -16.7% 28% 0% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 0% -10.8%
10% -24.6% 0% -19.3%
15% -31.9% 0% -27.1%
20% -38.6% 0% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

425d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses15 / 38
Open positions0
Markets (closed)53 / 53
History coverage425d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 53 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 21 $29 $0 -0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 21 $57 +$1 +2%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $29 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $47 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $27 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $3 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $4 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $28 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $31 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $17 $0 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $30 −$2 -6%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $69 −$4 -6%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $69 −$1 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 30 $64 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 30 $18 −$1 -8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 29 $36 −$1 -3%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 29 $34 −$1 -4%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $75 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 29 $4 −$2 -41%
Will Steve Mnuchin buy TikTok? Jun 28 $2 −$1 -58%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Jalen Brunson Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 Jun 05 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 04 $11 $0 +2%
Will Trump issue a Gold Card before June? Jun 01 $19 $0 +2%
Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people? May 30 $38 $0 -0%
Will Ashwin Adhin be the next president of Suriname after the election May 28 $18 $0 +1%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? May 27 $19 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1600 in May? May 26 $20 $0 +0%
Will the candidate from the People Power Party win the South Korean Pr May 26 $19 $0 -2%
No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? May 21 $19 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? May 20 $20 $0 -1%
Will Maomao win Crunchyroll's Best Main Character Award for 2025? May 19 $20 −$1 -6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? May 18 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 9–16? May 15 $20 $0 +1%
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in 2025? May 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will Finland be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final? May 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Larry Kudlow as next Fed Chair? May 11 $20 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? May 11 $20 $0 +0%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal minority? May 10 $20 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? May 10 $18 $0 +0%
Will Raymond Burke be the next pope? May 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 09 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Euroatlantic Coalition win the most seats in the next Albania May 08 $18 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? May 08 $18 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec May 08 $17 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by $750b-1t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025 May 07 $14 $0 +0%
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the May 07 $4 $0 +6%
Will Jose Tolentino de Mendonca be the next pope? May 07 $18 $0 -0%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Los Angeles Rams? May 06 $18 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $27 52m
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $2 53m
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $29 1h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 94¢ $26 19h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 94¢ $3 19h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 94¢ $29 22h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $29 33h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $13 35h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $16 35h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 93¢ $29 41h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 89¢ $8 43h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 89¢ $20 43h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $9 47h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $9 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $11 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $11 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $28 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $28 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $27 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $9 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $19 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $3 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $3 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $1 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $3 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $4 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $0 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $23 17d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $5 17d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $28 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 173 history records