Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:09:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
10 0x102a…df8e sports 65 markets active 1h ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$90 (-8%) realized −$30 · open −$60
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate44%25W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$48
14 days−$91
30 days−$91
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% −$128
politics 17% −$49
crypto 3% +$1
other 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +8.9% -1.5% 56% 41% -16.0%
≤30d 33 +3.2% -6.7% 55% 42% -19.0%
≤90d 57 -9.9% -18.5% 44% 35% -20.2%
all 57 -9.9% -18.5% 44% 35% -20.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.5% 35% -20.2%
10% -26.3% 33% -27.8%
15% -33.4% 26% -34.8%
20% -39.9% 23% -41.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$13 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$30
Unrealized−$60
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses25 / 32
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions8
Markets (closed)57 / 65
History coverage77d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 6¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+63%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Over 75¢ 24¢ $26 $8 −$17 (-67%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+34%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Over 20¢ 4¢ $16 $4 −$12 (-78%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Over 39¢ 11¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-72%)
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$24 (-99%)
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 20¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $25 +$7 +26%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $25 +$2 +10%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $25 +$30 +116%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $25 +$9 +34%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $21 −$21 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $50 +$5 +10%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $25 −$25 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $51 −$50 -99%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $25 +$10 +42%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $50 +$4 +8%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $25 +$1 +5%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $25 +$28 +109%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $10 +$28 +277%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $25 +$26 +103%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $25 +$7 +29%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $25 −$25 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $50 −$50 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $20 +$32 +158%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $25 +$31 +124%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $4 +$16 +387%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $26 −$22 -85%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $26 +$24 +96%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $51 +$24 +48%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Apr 19 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Apr 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Juntos por el Perú (JP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian S Apr 15 $1 +$1 +98%
Will Renovación Popular (RP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian S Apr 14 $11 −$9 -76%
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 20 Apr 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in first place in the first round of t Apr 14 $34 −$14 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Apr 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Apr 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Apr 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Apr 13 $2 −$1 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Apr 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Apr 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Apr 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Apr 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Apr 13 $1 +$1 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Apr 13 $1 +$1 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Apr 13 $1 +$2 +206%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 22¢ $11 33m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 75¢ $26 52m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 39¢ $10 53m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 16¢ $5 53m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 80¢ $32 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $27 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $25 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $25 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $55 18h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $0 18h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $5 18h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $29 18h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 20¢ $5 19h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 27¢ $10 19h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 28¢ $6 19h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $55 19h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 91¢ $50 19h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 45¢ $25 20h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $25 20h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 1¢ $0 22h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 36¢ $25 24h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $51 24h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 83¢ $50 24h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 1¢ $3 25h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 2¢ $5 26h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 1¢ $2 26h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $54 26h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 70¢ $25 27h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $50 28h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $52 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.04 · official $38.04 (match) · 153 history records