Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:49:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x1027…28a0 crypto 267 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$562 (+9%) realized +$207 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate52%131W / 123L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day95.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$88now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$94
7 days+$365
14 days+$207
30 days+$207
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$222
other 1% −$16
sports 1% +$3
politics 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-23.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 206 -14.4% -22.6% 51% 45% -2.8%
≤30d 254 -15.0% -23.1% 52% 44% -6.4%
≤90d 254 -15.0% -23.1% 52% 44% -6.4%
all 254 -15.0% -23.1% 52% 44% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover95.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.1% 44% -6.4%
10% ← realistic here -30.5% 38% -15.3%
15% -37.2% 29% -23.5%
20% -43.3% 19% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$13 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$88
Realized+$207
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses131 / 123
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions13
Markets (closed)254 / 267
History coverage8d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day95.3
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 254 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Down 73¢ 86¢ $25 $29 +$4 (+17%)
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 87¢ 100¢ $25 $29 +$4 (+15%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Ilia Topuria 81¢ 80¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Yes 30¢ 28¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Rodrigo Paz out as President of Bolivia by June 30, 2026? Yes 12¢ 8¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-38%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Yes 34¢ 32¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 7¢ 1¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-85%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 47¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Down 7¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Down 13¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Down 39¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Down 25¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Down 42¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Down 63¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Down 65¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $25 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $51 −$31 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $65 −$24 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $36 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $36 +$11 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $122 +$26 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $87 +$23 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $35 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $66 −$65 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $56 −$55 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $36 −$35 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$1 +5%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$5 +442%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$7 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $57 +$70 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 14 $22 +$8 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $46 +$9 +19%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$9 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$8 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$16 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 12 $30 +$3 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $20 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $20 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $21 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $20 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $20 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $20 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $20 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 36m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $20 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $20 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $20 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $20 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $20 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $20 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $20 56m
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 87¢ $20 57m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $88.44 · official $86.38 · 901 history records