Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T01:10:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

10
0x1025…7939
world · 74 markets active 1h ago
3.5score
+$63 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$80 · open −$21
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Net worth$172
Realized+$80
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses34 / 27
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions13
Markets (closed)61 / 74
History coverage173d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit77%
Chart Positions 13 History 61 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$26
7 days−$66
14 days−$8
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 40¢ 38¢ $28 $27 −$1 (-5%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 58¢ 52¢ $28 $25 −$3 (-11%)
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No 41¢ 46¢ $22 $24 +$2 (+10%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? No 26¢ 18¢ $25 $17 −$8 (-34%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 74¢ 72¢ $15 $14 −$0 (-3%)
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? No 59¢ 60¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+1%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 67¢ 61¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-9%)
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 52¢ 80¢ $8 $12 +$4 (+54%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? No 39¢ 18¢ $25 $12 −$13 (-52%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? No 20¢ 20¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? No 20¢ 20¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 14¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-55%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 13 $27 −$5 -18%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $33 −$16 -48%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 Jun 13 $24 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? Jun 12 $44 −$5 -12%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Jun 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 11 $66 +$3 +4%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $56 −$16 -29%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 10 $44 −$2 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 06 $34 +$19 +56%
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 05 $25 −$8 -32%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $19 −$1 -4%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 03 $15 +$3 +18%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $14 +$3 +24%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $25 +$27 +108%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $41 +$15 +36%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $4 $0 +6%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 30 $7 $0 -1%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 28 $10 −$9 -92%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 28 $78 +$22 +29%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 25 $5 −$1 -21%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $32 −$10 -30%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $5 $0 -3%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 19 $20 +$4 +22%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $25 $0 +2%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? May 15 $7 $0 +3%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 11 $17 +$8 +47%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 11 $15 +$6 +39%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 10 $34 +$30 +88%
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el May 07 $7 −$1 -10%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 07 $5 $0 +4%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 06 $9 $0 +5%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 04 $41 −$26 -65%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 30 $10 $0 +2%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Apr 28 $5 $0 +1%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 27 $62 −$20 -33%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 26 $22 +$5 +22%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $25 +$4 +16%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $23 +$66 +293%
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $10 +$5 +49%
Will Arizona win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 09 $7 −$7 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 09 $15 −$15 -100%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 09 $35 +$14 +40%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in April? Apr 06 $10 +$4 +40%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 20? Apr 05 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 22? Apr 05 $5 −$5 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 05 $6 +$2 +33%
Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 01 $5 +$4 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 25% +$101
world 25% −$46
sports 24% +$3
crypto 12% +$31
politics 9% −$28
finance 3% −$5
economics 1% $0
culture 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 41¢ $10 1h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 11¢ $18 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 40¢ $8 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 40¢ $10 1h
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? BUY No 20¢ $4 2h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 13¢ $17 2h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 SELL No 63¢ $24 2h
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 20¢ $4 32h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $9 32h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 32h
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 32h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY No 59¢ $14 32h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 74¢ $15 38h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 40h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? SELL No 62¢ $20 40h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 25¢ $8 2d
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? SELL No 16¢ $8 2d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 BUY No 63¢ $15 3d
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 41¢ $16 3d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 4d
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? SELL No 61¢ $10 4d
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $25 6d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 71¢ $25 6d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 70¢ $9 6d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $3 6d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 BUY No 65¢ $9 6d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $4 6d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 72¢ $7 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -40.8% -46.5% 10% 0% -28.3%
≤30d 27 -10.7% -19.2% 41% 26% -9.6%
≤90d 61 -2.0% -11.4% 56% 36% -3.6%
all 61 -2.0% -11.4% 56% 36% -3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 36% -3.6%
10% -19.8% 28% -12.8%
15% -27.6% 21% -21.3%
20% -34.7% 10% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $171.93 · official $171.88 (match) · 500 history records