Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:37:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x1024…831a crypto 983 markets active 1h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$1,009 (-11%) realized −$603 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate47%453W / 504L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day49.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$73
7 days−$88
14 days−$2,083
30 days−$1,429
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 68% −$167
weather 32% −$455
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 162 +13.6% +2.7% 10% 10% -16.8%
≤30d 700 -19.7% -27.4% 29% 20% -33.1%
≤90d 957 -6.0% -14.9% 47% 30% -17.4%
all 957 -6.0% -14.9% 47% 30% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.9% 30% -17.4%
10% ← realistic here -23.1% 22% -25.3%
15% -30.5% 17% -32.5%
20% -37.3% 15% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$8 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized−$603
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses453 / 504
Open positions26
Markets (closed)957 / 983
History coverage40d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day49.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 26 History 957 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C or higher on June 15? Yes 7¢ 11¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+64%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? Yes 7¢ 17¢ $5 $12 +$7 (+143%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 15? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 15? Yes 7¢ 14¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 15? Yes 3¢ 7¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+89%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 15? Yes 7¢ 10¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+29%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C or higher on June 15? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 15? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-13%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 15? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 15? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 15? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-21%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 15? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-27%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 15? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-13%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 15? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-51%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? Yes 7¢ 3¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-55%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 15? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-76%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 15? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-22%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? Yes 10¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-40%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 15? Yes 8¢ 1¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-89%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 15? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on June 14? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 14? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 14? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on June 14? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$9 +900%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 +$50 +1908%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 14? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 14? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 14? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 14? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 14? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 14? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 14? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 14? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$48 +946%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 +$51 +2474%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 14? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 14? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 14? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 14? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 14? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on June 13? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 13? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 13? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 13? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 13? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 13? Jun 12 $3 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 13? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 13? Jun 12 $3 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 13? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 13? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 13? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 11? Jun 12 $7 +$49 +698%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 13? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 13? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 13? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 13? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 13? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $7 +$76 +1053%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $7 +$64 +890%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $9 +$116 +1287%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 15? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C or higher on June 15 BUY Yes 7¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 15? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 15? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 15? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C or higher on June 15? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 15? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 15? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 15? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 15? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 15? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 15? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 15? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 15? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 15? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 15? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 15? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 15? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 15? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 15? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 15? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 8h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.92 · official $96.53 · 3500 history records