Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:18:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
10 0x101f…f79a crypto 677 markets active 0h ago coverage 88d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 88d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,343 (-1%) realized −$1,347 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate51%343W / 333L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$183per market
Trades / day30.6pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$84now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$39
7 days−$468
14 days−$474
30 days−$488
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$22
other 2% −$231
economics 2% −$2,335
politics 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 428 -17.0% -24.9% 45% 45% -12.7%
≤30d 432 -17.8% -25.6% 44% 44% -12.9%
≤90d 676 -11.1% -19.6% 51% 48% -11.4%
all 676 -11.1% -19.6% 51% 48% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.6% 48% -11.4%
10% ← realistic here -27.3% 42% -19.9%
15% -34.3% 37% -27.6%
20% -40.7% 33% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$138 vs −$150 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$84
Realized−$1,347
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses343 / 333
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)676 / 677
History coverage88d ⚠
Avg bet$183
Trades / day30.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 676 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Down 70¢ 74¢ $80 $84 +$4 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $42 −$41 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $42 +$15 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 18 $83 +$31 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 18 $41 −$40 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $41 +$16 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 18 $83 +$31 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 18 $42 −$41 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 18 $39 +$18 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 18 $42 +$15 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 18 $43 +$14 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 18 $81 +$33 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 18 $40 −$39 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 18 $84 +$30 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 18 $41 −$40 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 18 $42 +$15 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 18 $43 +$14 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 18 $42 +$15 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 18 $8 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 18 $4 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 18 $4 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 18 $7 +$3 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 18 $11 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 18 $11 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 18 $7 +$3 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 18 $8 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 18 $7 +$3 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 18 $4 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 18 $4 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 18 $4 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 18 $4 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 18 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 18 $4 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 18 $7 +$3 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 18 $7 +$3 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 18 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 18 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 18 $4 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 18 $7 +$3 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 18 $4 +$1 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $81 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $42 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $42 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $83 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $41 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $41 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $83 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $42 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $81 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $84 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $41 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $42 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $24 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $42 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $8 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $11 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $7 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $11 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $7 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $83.79 · official $56.72 · 3500 history records