Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:51:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x101e…eaf4 other 258 markets active 1h ago coverage 285d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$242 (+1%) realized +$568 · open −$326
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate20%50W / 202L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$100per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$73now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$191
7 days+$230
14 days+$179
30 days+$145
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 45% +$1,612
other 41% −$2,218
sports 8% −$89
crypto 2% +$53
world 2% −$168
finance 1% +$469
culture 1% −$130
economics 0% −$3
tech 0% −$6
weather 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-29.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +17.0% +5.9% 38% 38% +8.9%
≤30d 59 +3.1% -6.8% 19% 19% -5.6%
≤90d 163 -22.9% -30.2% 14% 14% -26.9%
all 252 -21.7% -29.1% 20% 19% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.1% 19% -10.2%
10% -35.9% 19% -18.8%
15% -42.1% 18% -26.6%
20% -47.8% 17% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$227 vs −$57 · ×3.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

285d coverage
Net worth$73
Realized+$568
Unrealized−$326
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses50 / 202
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions4
Markets (closed)252 / 258
History coverage285d
Avg bet$100
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 252 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%? No 8¢ 6¢ $70 $58 −$12 (-17%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $320 $6 −$314 (-98%)
Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? Yes 6¢ 7¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+12%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.4–0.5%? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 56 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $55 −$54 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 18 $95 −$11 -12%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $159 +$231 +146%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $102 −$7 -7%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $66 −$65 -98%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $27 +$118 +438%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $135 +$53 +39%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$19 -97%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $120 +$89 +75%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $100 +$71 +71%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $112 −$31 -28%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 8? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -96%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Honduras win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $10 −$9 -97%
Will MrBeast's next video get 64 million or more views in week 1? Jun 06 $28 −$27 -96%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 63.5 and 64 million views in wee Jun 06 $10 −$10 -97%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week Jun 04 $62 −$61 -98%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 58 and 59 million views on day 5 Jun 04 $45 −$44 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 04 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 04 $12 +$18 +154%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $51 −$5 -11%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 53 and 54 million views on day 4 Jun 03 $62 −$58 -93%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 55 and 56 million views on day 4 Jun 03 $14 −$13 -95%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 52 and 53 million views on day 4 Jun 03 $3 −$3 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $3 −$3 -95%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $94 +$100 +106%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Keir Starmer by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $20 −$19 -97%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 02 $109 −$20 -19%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $37 −$17 -46%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Epstein suicide note released by May 31? Jun 01 $3 −$3 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 01 $3 −$3 -95%
Will Trump praise Jesus by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 31 $94 +$537 +568%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 May 31 $10 −$10 -99%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 28, 2026? May 29 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $22 −$4 -18%
Will Club Bolívar win on 2026-05-27? May 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2026-05-27? May 28 $5 −$5 -97%
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-05-27? May 28 $2 −$1 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 27 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Donald Trump dance on May 25, 2026? May 27 $100 +$203 +202%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $55 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AN BUY 4¢ $24 4h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06- BUY 8¢ $26 12h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY No 10¢ $13 26h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 14¢ $84 26h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 16¢ $79 26h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 26h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $159 28h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 29¢ $95 28h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 28h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 22¢ $44 31h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 32h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 43¢ $61 33h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 94¢ $145 33h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 29¢ $5 43h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 28¢ $5 43h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 26¢ $5 43h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 12¢ $12 43h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $188 45h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 71¢ $135 45h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $6 45h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $13 46h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 87¢ $209 46h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 39¢ $56 46h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $64 46h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 82¢ $171 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 47¢ $100 2d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY No 7¢ $21 2d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 0¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $73.28 · official $73.28 (match) · 1131 history records