Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:15:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
10 0x101c…543d crypto 742 markets active 1h ago coverage 41d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$499 (-2%) realized −$494 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate61%454W / 287L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day40.7pace
Fees−$121est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$38
7 days−$310
14 days−$313
30 days−$666
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 51% −$606
sports 40% −$347
other 9% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -14.9% -23.0% 64% 33% -26.5%
≤30d 256 -10.7% -19.2% 62% 38% -19.7%
≤90d 741 -5.3% -14.3% 61% 45% -13.3%
all 741 -5.3% -14.3% 61% 45% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.3% 45% -13.3%
10% ← realistic here -22.5% 33% -21.6%
15% -30.0% 23% -29.2%
20% -36.8% 16% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$22 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$494
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses454 / 287
Est. fees paid−$121
Open positions1
Markets (closed)741 / 742
History coverage41d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day40.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 741 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Over 61¢ 55¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 83 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $31 +$20 +65%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $20 +$7 +34%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $45 −$25 -56%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $25 +$15 +60%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $50 +$11 +22%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $46 +$13 +28%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $34 +$12 +35%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $4 $0 +4%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $18 −$13 -75%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$1 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$2 +20%
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky Jun 18 $12 +$1 +8%
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $40 −$40 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $39 +$13 +32%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $46 +$4 +9%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$16 +52%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 180.5 Jun 17 $43 −$42 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $41 +$3 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$1 +3%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $72 −$62 -86%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 173.5 Jun 16 $43 +$29 +68%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 16 $64 −$61 -95%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$34 -67%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$51 -50%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $79 +$69 +88%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $76 +$4 +5%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $70 +$3 +5%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $67 +$4 +6%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 −$100 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$58 +58%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 14 $40 +$3 +8%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $20 +$1 +6%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $33 +$7 +20%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 +$16 +16%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm Jun 13 $150 +$11 +8%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $60 +$61 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -4%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $21 +$40 +190%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $49 −$28 -57%
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire Jun 12 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $61 +$28 +46%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings Jun 12 $46 +$6 +13%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $20 −$17 -84%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $51 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 60¢ $31 15h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 88¢ $25 19h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $26 19h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 74¢ $20 21h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 41¢ $0 21h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 40¢ $20 21h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 89¢ $45 23h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 99¢ $41 24h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $25 36h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $40 44h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $62 46h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 81¢ $50 47h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $59 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $46 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 72¢ $46 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $34 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 96¢ $4 2d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 2d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $18 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $11 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $10 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $12 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $10 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $10 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $12 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $10 2d
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky SELL Chicago Sky 28¢ $13 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.08 · official $47.13 · 1820 history records