Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:32:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
10 0x1019…1f27 crypto 185 markets active 3d ago coverage 202d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,969 (+2%) realized +$1,969 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate88%163W / 22L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$544per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$54
14 days−$54
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% +$2,480
crypto 10% −$320
sports 1% −$229
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +14.6% +3.7% 80% 40% -11.2%
≤30d 6 +15.0% +4.1% 83% 50% -10.1%
≤90d 29 -33.7% -40.0% 55% 31% -14.0%
all 185 +2.9% -6.9% 88% 43% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 43% -7.8%
10% -15.8% 20% -16.6%
15% -23.9% 8% -24.7%
20% -31.4% 4% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +14% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$112 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.79 per $1 lost it wins $1.79
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

202d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,969
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses163 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)185 / 185
History coverage202d
Avg bet$544
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 185 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $91 +$2 +2%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $303 +$203 +67%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2,025 +$47 +2%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $27 +$17 +62%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $535 −$323 -60%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $200 +$34 +17%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $300 +$41 +14%
FC Bayern München leading at halftime? May 06 $300 +$39 +13%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $300 +$29 +10%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-04-24? Apr 24 $300 +$97 +32%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $300 +$51 +17%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $1,200 +$151 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 6, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Apr 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 7, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Apr 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 26, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Apr 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 7, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Apr 10 $64 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 18, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Apr 10 $37 −$37 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 19, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Apr 10 $38 −$38 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 1, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Apr 10 $39 −$38 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 11, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Apr 10 $42 −$42 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 27, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Apr 10 $51 −$51 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 7, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Apr 10 $65 −$65 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Apr 10 $132 −$132 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 29, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Apr 10 $141 −$141 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 18, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Apr 10 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-04-10? Apr 10 $1,299 +$41 +3%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $500 +$30 +6%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $999 +$39 +4%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $300 +$57 +19%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $36 +$1 +4%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? Mar 18 $378 −$343 -90%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $299 +$79 +26%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $300 +$199 +66%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-17? Mar 17 $9,996 +$281 +3%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-14? Mar 14 $15,000 +$225 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Mar 14 $103 +$3 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Mar 14 $93 +$10 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Mar 14 $70 +$2 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Mar 14 $72 +$6 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Mar 14 $78 +$3 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Mar 14 $80 +$11 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Mar 14 $91 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Mar 14 $68 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Mar 14 $67 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Mar 14 $64 +$4 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Mar 14 $63 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Mar 14 $59 +$3 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Mar 14 $56 +$3 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Mar 14 $47 +$10 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Mar 14 $44 +$3 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $93 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $506 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 79¢ $121 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 51¢ $183 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 98¢ $91 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $2,073 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $981 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 97¢ $1,001 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 96¢ $44 3d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 61¢ $27 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 9¢ $27 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 60¢ $186 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 44¢ $186 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 81¢ $350 5d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? SELL No 100¢ $234 18d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY No 85¢ $200 18d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? SELL No 100¢ $341 42d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? BUY No 88¢ $300 42d
FC Bayern München leading at halftime? SELL No 100¢ $339 42d
FC Bayern München leading at halftime? BUY No 88¢ $300 42d
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-04-26? SELL Yes 99¢ $329 52d
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-04-26? BUY Yes 90¢ $300 52d
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-04-24? SELL No 100¢ $396 54d
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-04-24? BUY No 75¢ $300 54d
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-15? SELL No 100¢ $351 63d
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-15? BUY No 85¢ $300 63d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,351 67d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-11? BUY Yes 94¢ $100 67d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-11? BUY Yes 90¢ $100 67d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-11? BUY Yes 88¢ $100 67d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 414 history records