Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:13:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
10 0x1016…b09b sports 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$861 (+21%) realized +$863 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%9W / 10L
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$172per market
Trades / day10.7pace
Fees−$36est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$98now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% +$1
other 36% +$1,157
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +8.4% -1.9% 47% 47% +20.0%
≤30d 19 +8.4% -1.9% 47% 47% +20.0%
≤90d 19 +8.4% -1.9% 47% 47% +20.0%
all 19 +8.4% -1.9% 47% 47% +20.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.9% 47% +20.0%
10% -11.3% 42% +8.5%
15% -19.9% 42% -2.0%
20% -27.7% 37% -11.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 36% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +33% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -100% → late +106% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$238 vs −$98 · ×2.42 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.18 per $1 lost it wins $2.18
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$98
Realized+$863
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses9 / 10
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions1
Markets (closed)19 / 24
History coverage3d
Avg bet$172
Trades / day10.7
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $102 +$298 +291%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $51 +$11 +22%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- Jun 20 $204 +$327 +160%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $304 +$213 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $415 +$260 +63%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $303 +$173 +57%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $102 +$168 +165%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $86 +$248 +287%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $1,009 +$444 +44%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $26 −$25 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $284 −$280 -99%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $186 −$184 -99%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $222 −$217 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $144 −$142 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $34 −$33 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 BUY 39¢ $102 44m
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) AND Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a dra BUY 6¢ $51 1h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY 39¢ $204 1h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 1h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Neth BUY 17¢ $103 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $102 8h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? SELL Yes 17¢ $63 10h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 17h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- BUY 38¢ $204 17h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 17h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $304 20h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $314 27h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 37¢ $102 41h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $303 41h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 7¢ $26 41h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 41h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 42h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY South Africa 56¢ $203 43h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $66 46h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY South Africa 73¢ $806 46h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 54¢ $284 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 68¢ $186 2d
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 14¢ $31 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $17 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $204 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $33 2d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 29¢ $34 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $112 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $97.62 · official $547.62 · 39 history records