Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T07:48:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
10 0x100e…3ae1 crypto 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3,760 (-31%) realized −$3,760 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate50%20W / 20L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$301per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$42
7 days−$861
14 days−$2,721
30 days−$2,721
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$2,914
crypto 46% −$942
world 1% −$24
economics 0% −$50
sports 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-2.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +32.8% +20.2% 57% 50% -22.4%
≤30d 33 +20.2% +8.7% 55% 45% -32.9%
≤90d 37 +16.3% +5.2% 54% 46% -38.3%
all 40 +7.6% -2.7% 50% 42% -39.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.7% 42% -39.5%
10% -12.0% 38% -45.3%
15% -20.5% 35% -50.6%
20% -28.3% 25% -55.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +18% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$105 vs −$301 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,760
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses20 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage148d
Avg bet$301
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions (15 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 25 $22 −$22 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 25 $48 −$3 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$14 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 25 $191 −$77 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 25 $77 +$6 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 25 $52 +$33 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 25 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 25 $95 −$29 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 25 $94 +$11 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 25 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 25 $52 +$33 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 25 $52 +$14 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 25 $32 +$21 +66%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 25 $52 −$20 -39%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 23 $42 +$17 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 23 $21 +$11 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 23 $31 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 23 $20 +$8 +40%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 21 $16 −$4 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 21 $1,087 −$1,050 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? Jun 21 $919 +$158 +17%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $2 +$16 +874%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 20 $613 +$266 +43%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,713 −$882 -52%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $889 +$649 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2 +$5 +226%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $55 −$54 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $2,632 −$2,599 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1,837 +$798 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Apr 17 $63 −$59 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Apr 16 $36 +$27 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Apr 16 $22 +$14 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5AM ET Apr 16 $971 −$953 -98%
Will there be at least 600 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 20 Jan 31 $130 −$130 -100%
Will Bad Bunny say "Fuck ICE" at the Big Game? Jan 28 $52 −$52 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 28 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $22 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $19 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $24 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $26 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $24 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $97 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $107 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $95 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $84 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $77 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $85 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $66 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $95 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $105 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $94 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $52 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $52 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $32 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 4¢ $32 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 7¢ $52 2d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $42 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $31 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $20 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 80 history records