Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:06:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
10 0x100d…714d other 149 markets active 1h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate9%13W / 135L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$307per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$24
politics 36% −$20
sports 10% +$26
crypto 4% −$1
tech 2% −$1
economics 2% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 14 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 103 -0.1% -9.6% 2% 0% -9.6%
all 148 -1.2% -10.6% 9% 7% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 7% -9.6%
10% -19.2% 4% -18.2%
15% -27.0% 3% -26.1%
20% -34.1% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$1 · ×8.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses13 / 135
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)148 / 149
History coverage133d
Avg bet$307
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 148 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $41 $41 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 24 $273 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 22 $32 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 21 $41 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $29 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $48 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $32 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $528 −$1 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 01 $30 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $28 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $274 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $274 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $229 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $301 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 26 $270 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $587 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $232 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $273 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $556 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $238 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $240 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $236 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 20 $286 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e May 20 $219 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $871 −$1 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 18 $322 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $299 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $547 −$1 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $639 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $1,231 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 14 $301 −$1 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $277 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 12 $455 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $269 $0 -0%
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 10 $293 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $267 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $259 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $295 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $276 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $640 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $325 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $299 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 02 $284 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $294 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $631 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? Apr 28 $237 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? Apr 22 $247 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Apr 21 $282 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $280 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $270 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 21 $244 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $41 1h
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $34 1h
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $34 17h
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $32 42h
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $32 2d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $41 3d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $41 3d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $29 4d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 19d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $48 19d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $48 20d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $32 21d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $32 21d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $43 22d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $43 22d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $30 22d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 23d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $28 24d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 24d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $46 24d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $46 24d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $274 25d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $274 27d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $229 27d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $229 27d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $301 28d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $301 29d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $270 29d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $270 29d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $242 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.98 · official $40.98 (match) · 462 history records