Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:54:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x100b…15de crypto 2738 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 11d only
✗ bot/MM pace (274 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$780 (+45%) realized +$780 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%310W / 501L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day273.6pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$443
7 days−$15
14 days+$157
30 days+$157
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$581
other 2% +$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (274 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 710 -0.8% -10.3% 30% 30% -14.9%
≤30d 811 +7.0% -3.1% 38% 38% -2.7%
≤90d 811 +7.0% -3.1% 38% 38% -2.7%
all 811 +7.0% -3.1% 38% 38% -2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover273.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.1% 38% -2.7%
10% ← realistic here -12.4% 38% -12.0%
15% -20.9% 30% -20.5%
20% -28.6% 28% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +88% → late -74% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$780
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses310 / 501
Open positions0
Markets (closed)811 / 2738
History coverage12d ⚠
Avg bet$1
Trades / day273.6
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 811 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 29 $6 −$6 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 29 $6 −$6 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 17, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 29 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 29 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 29 $12 −$12 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 24, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 13m
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $4 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 27m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 31m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $0 31m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 35m
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 37m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $4 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records