Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:44:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x100a…7151 other 131 markets active 1h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$36 (-0%) realized −$36 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate15%20W / 110L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$122per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$13
14 days−$25
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 28% −$12
politics 26% −$15
sports 18% −$12
crypto 11% −$4
world 6% −$3
culture 4% −$4
finance 3% −$1
economics 3% −$2
tech 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -0.9% -10.4% 13% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 70 -0.7% -10.2% 10% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 115 -0.5% -10.0% 14% 0% -9.8%
all 130 -0.5% -10.0% 15% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized−$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses20 / 110
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)130 / 131
History coverage99d
Avg bet$122
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 130 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 95¢ 95¢ $59 $59 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Utah Mammoth be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? Jun 17 $53 −$4 -7%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $623 −$1 -0%
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $60 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 16 $79 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $63 $0 -0%
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $68 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $142 −$1 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 14 $58 −$1 -2%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 14 $53 −$1 -3%
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $51 $0 -0%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 13 $62 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $108 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 13 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $60 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 12 $48 $0 -0%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 12 $89 +$1 +1%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $78 −$1 -1%
Will Jude Bellingham win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $9 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $63 −$1 -1%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 10 $117 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 10 $61 −$2 -4%
Will a player representing Portugal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 Jun 10 $57 −$1 -1%
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 10 $46 −$1 -3%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $184 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jun 07 $53 $0 -1%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 07 $115 −$1 -1%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $94 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 06 $53 −$1 -2%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $405 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $186 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 05 $35 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 05 $423 −$3 -1%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $189 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $56 $0 -1%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 04 $53 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $54 −$1 -1%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 03 $45 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 03 $160 $0 -0%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 03 $55 −$1 -1%
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $42 −$1 -2%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $279 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $102 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 01 $48 −$1 -2%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $64 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $334 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $104 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $58 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $92 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $59 1h
Will the Utah Mammoth be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? SELL No 91¢ $49 1h
Will the Utah Mammoth be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? BUY No 98¢ $53 9h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $46 10h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $47 18h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 93¢ $47 19h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 93¢ $47 23h
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $60 23h
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $60 31h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL No 98¢ $20 32h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 97¢ $19 36h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? SELL No 98¢ $1 37h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $1 42h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $63 42h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $63 2d
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $68 2d
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $68 2d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $37 2d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $37 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $57 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $58 2d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 93¢ $52 2d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 95¢ $53 3d
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $50 3d
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $50 3d
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $51 3d
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $51 3d
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 97¢ $53 3d
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $53 3d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 97¢ $49 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.57 · official $58.57 (match) · 475 history records