Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:31:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
10 0x1008…5fa6 other 93 markets active 2h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,107 (-1%) realized −$1,107 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate14%13W / 78L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$889per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$890now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$10
14 days−$96
30 days−$1,108
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$1,094
politics 37% −$40
sports 8% −$1
tech 1% −$1
crypto 1% +$1
culture 1% −$1
economics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 34 -2.1% -11.5% 18% 12% -13.7%
≤90d 91 -1.2% -10.6% 14% 9% -10.8%
all 91 -1.2% -10.6% 14% 9% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 9% -10.8%
10% -19.2% 9% -19.3%
15% -27.0% 8% -27.1%
20% -34.2% 8% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,056) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$18 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$890
Realized−$1,107
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses13 / 78
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)91 / 93
History coverage91d
Avg bet$889
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 91 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $620 $620 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $269 $269 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $646 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $1,378 −$2 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $530 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $3,100 −$4 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $584 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $723 −$1 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $627 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $1,519 −$2 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $631 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $771 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,616 −$2 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $838 −$1 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 05 $74 −$74 -100%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 03 $1,830 −$2 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $837 −$1 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 03 $73 +$63 +86%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $749 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 02 $546 −$1 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.60 in May? Jun 02 $43 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 02 $352 +$1 +0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $606 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $510 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $507 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $591 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $700 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $752 −$1 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $681 −$1 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $688 −$1 -0%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $83 −$83 -100%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-23? May 25 $64 +$51 +79%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5 May 21 $31 +$25 +83%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $33 −$33 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 19 $1,069 −$1,069 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) May 19 $52 +$43 +83%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $1,022 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $2,450 −$3 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? May 01 $75 $0 +0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 30 $694 −$1 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 25 $2,029 −$2 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 25 $1,816 −$2 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $875 −$1 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $1,746 −$2 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $960 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $919 −$1 -0%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 21 $48 −$48 -100%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 21 $62 +$19 +31%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $1,928 −$2 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 19 $1,037 −$1 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $1,084 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $2,633 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $621 1h
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $645 4h
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $646 6h
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $498 21h
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $499 25h
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $529 44h
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $530 47h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $535 2d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $536 2d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $583 3d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $584 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $269 3d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $722 6d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $723 6d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $626 7d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $627 7d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $729 7d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $730 8d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $630 8d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $631 8d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $787 8d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $789 9d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $770 9d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $771 9d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $679 10d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $680 10d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $848 11d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $849 12d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $837 12d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $838 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $889.50 · official $889.37 (match) · 265 history records