Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:10:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
10 0x1007…b093 other 131 markets active 2h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$27 (+0%) realized +$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate8%10W / 120L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$159per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$11
politics 39% −$185
sports 4% +$45
crypto 4% −$1
economics 2% −$1
tech 2% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 21 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 116 -1.3% -10.7% 5% 4% -10.3%
all 130 -2.4% -11.7% 8% 6% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 6% -10.2%
10% -20.2% 6% -18.8%
15% -27.9% 3% -26.6%
20% -35.0% 3% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$2 · ×5.35 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized+$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses10 / 120
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)130 / 131
History coverage117d
Avg bet$159
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 130 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli Jun 21 $18 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 21 $17 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $21 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $371 −$1 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $21 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $16 $0 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $26 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $25 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $33 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $202 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $25 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $17 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $26 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $21 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $32 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $29 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $192 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $158 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 26 $157 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $140 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $317 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $203 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 20 $153 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $337 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $173 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 17 $336 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $138 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $149 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $467 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $154 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $195 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $296 −$1 -0%
Will Cameron Norrie win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 11 $173 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 11 $193 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $170 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $271 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $140 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e May 07 $385 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $206 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 06 $142 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $144 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $193 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 03 $196 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $305 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $315 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $179 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $142 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $197 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 30 $175 −$175 -100%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 29 $151 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 1h
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli SELL No 100¢ $18 1h
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli BUY No 100¢ $18 8h
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $17 11h
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $17 14h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $21 38h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $21 47h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $21 2d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $21 6d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $21 6d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $21 6d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $16 7d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $16 7d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $26 9d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $26 10d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $25 10d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $25 11d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $33 11d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $33 12d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $32 13d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $32 14d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $25 14d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 16d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $17 19d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $17 19d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $26 19d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $26 19d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $21 19d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $21 20d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $32 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.99 · official $28.99 (match) · 361 history records