Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:08:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

10 0x1005…2fc3 other 3 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$29 (+16%) realized +$30 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip

Net edge-31%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%1W / 1L

Drawdown26%max

Avg bet$59per market

Trades / day1.9pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit33%portable

Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-31.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	-24.0%	-31.2%	50%	50%	+24.3%
≤30d	2	-24.0%	-31.2%	50%	50%	+24.3%
≤90d	2	-24.0%	-31.2%	50%	50%	+24.3%
all	2	-24.0%	-31.2%	50%	50%	+24.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.9 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-31.2%	50%	+24.3%
10%	-37.8%	50%	+12.4%
15%	-43.8%	50%	+1.6%
20%	-49.3%	50%	-8.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +37% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -24% · $-wt +37% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$36 vs −$7 · ×4.89 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×4.89 per $1 lost it wins $4.89

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$99

Realized+$30

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses1 / 1

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)2 / 3

History coverage2d

Avg bet$59

Trades / day1.9

Drawdown26%

Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	76¢	76¢	$100	$99	−$1 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$68	+$36	+52%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)	Jun 15	$7	−$7	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	76¢	$101	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$104	3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	65¢	$68	5h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)	BUY Alex Pereira	51¢	$7	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.34 · official $99.34 (match) · 4 history records