Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:46:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x1002…1ef5 other 687 markets active 1h ago coverage 681d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$832 (-2%) realized −$835 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate53%362W / 322L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$418now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$8
14 days−$8
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% −$320
sports 15% +$71
world 1% −$151
finance 1% −$442
politics 1% −$11
crypto 0% −$14
economics 0% −$1
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -2.5% -11.8% 0% 0% -11.7%
≤30d 2 -2.5% -11.8% 0% 0% -11.7%
≤90d 43 -13.6% -21.8% 37% 35% -19.5%
all 684 -6.7% -15.6% 53% 43% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.6% 43% -11.2%
10% -23.7% 34% -19.7%
15% -31.0% 27% -27.5%
20% -37.8% 22% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +2% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$37 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

681d coverage
Net worth$418
Realized−$835
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses362 / 322
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions2
Markets (closed)684 / 687
History coverage681d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 684 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? No 91¢ 90¢ $314 $313 −$2 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 29¢ 30¢ $100 $105 +$5 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 43 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $31 −$1 -3%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $307 −$7 -2%
Eintracht Frankfurt vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 2.5 May 17 $102 +$23 +23%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score May 07 $128 +$221 +172%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $31 −$18 -59%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-03? May 04 $129 +$17 +13%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-04-23? Apr 24 $118 +$11 +10%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Olympique Lyonnais: Both Teams to Score Apr 20 $33 +$67 +203%
Will CD Tondela win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $51 −$46 -91%
Will SC Braga win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $50 +$52 +103%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Stade Brestois 29 vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901 end in a draw? Apr 04 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Telstar 1963 vs. FC Groningen end in a draw? Apr 04 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Trabzonspor vs. Galatasaray SK end in a draw? Apr 04 $25 −$25 -100%
AZ vs. Fortuna Sittard: Both Teams to Score Apr 04 $52 −$52 -100%
Hamburger SV vs. FC Augsburg: Both Teams to Score Apr 04 $3 +$3 +100%
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 3.5 Apr 04 $56 +$88 +158%
Will Trabzonspor win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $178 −$176 -98%
VfB Stuttgart vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: Both Teams to Score Apr 04 $90 −$90 -100%
Will Hellas Verona FC win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $50 −$50 -100%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $47 −$46 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $68 −$67 -99%
Spread: Real Sociedad de Fútbol (-1.5) Apr 04 $45 +$44 +98%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Levante UD end in a draw? Apr 04 $14 −$14 -100%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) Apr 04 $50 −$49 -98%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) Apr 04 $125 +$111 +89%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Elche CF end in a draw? Apr 03 $24 −$23 -97%
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Elche CF: Both Teams to Score Apr 03 $77 −$76 -99%
Sweden vs. Poland: Both Teams to Score Apr 01 $49 +$49 +101%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Italy: Both Teams to Score Apr 01 $45 +$55 +122%
Will Czechia win on 2026-03-31? Apr 01 $106 +$94 +89%
Will Sweden win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $97 −$95 -98%
Will Kosovo win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $50 −$49 -98%
Kosovo vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Mar 31 $50 −$50 -100%
Colombia vs. France: Both Teams to Score Mar 30 $30 +$70 +233%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Mar 30 $70 −$70 -100%
S&P 500 breaks its losing streak this week? Mar 29 $73 −$73 -100%
Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: Both Teams to Score Mar 29 $59 +$8 +14%
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? Mar 28 $43 −$20 -47%
Will Kosovo win on 2026-03-26? Mar 26 $50 +$144 +288%
Will Sweden win on 2026-03-26? Mar 26 $50 −$49 -100%
Will Wales win on 2026-03-26? Mar 26 $50 −$50 -100%
FC Augsburg vs. VfB Stuttgart: Both Teams to Score Mar 23 $307 +$84 +27%
Will SC Braga vs. FC Porto end in a draw? Mar 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Will FC Porto win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $25 +$58 +232%
Will Real Madrid CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? Mar 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $367 +$88 +24%
Will FC Nantes win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $100 +$70 +70%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $50 +$113 +226%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 91¢ $315 38m
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) AND New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY 16¢ $36 40m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 11¢ $12 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 11¢ $7 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 2h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 20¢ $300 3h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $307 3h
Eintracht Frankfurt vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 81¢ $102 36d
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 33¢ $6 46d
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 37¢ $122 46d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? SELL Yes 6¢ $12 48d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? BUY Yes 14¢ $31 48d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-03? BUY No 88¢ $129 49d
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-04-23? BUY No 91¢ $118 59d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Olympique Lyonnais: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 33¢ $0 63d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Olympique Lyonnais: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 33¢ $5 63d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Olympique Lyonnais: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 33¢ $8 63d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Olympique Lyonnais: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 33¢ $0 63d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Olympique Lyonnais: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 33¢ $10 63d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Olympique Lyonnais: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 33¢ $9 63d
Will CD Tondela win on 2026-04-19? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 63d
Will CD Tondela win on 2026-04-19? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 63d
Will CD Tondela win on 2026-04-19? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 63d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-19? SELL Yes 2¢ $5 63d
Will SC Braga win on 2026-04-19? SELL No 63¢ $94 63d
Will SC Braga win on 2026-04-19? SELL No 63¢ $1 63d
Will SC Braga win on 2026-04-19? SELL No 63¢ $1 63d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $417.81 · official $452.82 · 1629 history records